{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ef26454-2014-4ab0-acdd-388200a0d0db", "symbol": "QB7", "name": "Quirin Privatbank AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.873, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.782, "architecture_energy": 28.071, "architecture_maturity": 17.406, "architecture_confidence": 88.336, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.59, "rotation_up": 20.76, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 47.61, "downward_expansion": 77.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.246722, 3.254928, 3.283921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 3.342295, "distance_from_trend": -0.042574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.517709, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.543098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069767, "excess_performance": -0.134407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.349304, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3639, "relative_activity": 2.48761, "balance": 3.349304, "dry_up": 1.576033, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064296, "annualized_volatility": 0.223287, "from_high_reference": -0.215686, "from_low_reference": 0.051955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.342295, "fair_value_reference": 3.517709, "structural_low": 3.041954, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001556, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004976, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.179012, "worst_return": -0.091788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061325, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.018243, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.268093, "worst_return": -0.097522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044862, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002313, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.770553, "worst_return": -0.096846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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3.530124, "relative_strength": -10.859931, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.163444, "energy": 19.429973, "activity_lines": [ 3.266199, 3.267595, 3.27662, 3.314062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.34, "volume": 4183, "typical_volume": 1533.2, "trend": 3.358962, "fair_value": 3.527931, "relative_strength": -5.309314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.060915, "energy": 7.605159, "activity_lines": [ 3.286, 3.282937, 3.279435, 3.312365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.24, "volume": 1068, "typical_volume": 1321.25, "trend": 3.353628, "fair_value": 3.524617, "relative_strength": -8.904342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.550678, "energy": 15.031582, "activity_lines": [ 3.268, 3.27713, 3.273679, 3.30469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 332, "typical_volume": 1285.35, "trend": 3.348295, "fair_value": 3.52056, "relative_strength": -12.12883, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.041194, "energy": 29.287313, "activity_lines": [ 3.237333, 3.259962, 3.262875, 3.293489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 3639, "typical_volume": 1462.85, "trend": 3.342295, "fair_value": 3.517709, "relative_strength": -13.543098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.782402, "energy": 28.071261, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.246722, 3.254928, 3.283921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }