{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ef2a972-385b-4830-a598-ed987b863bd1", "symbol": "BTRW", "name": "Barratt Redrow plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.494, "architecture_energy": 59.736, "architecture_maturity": 8.86, "architecture_confidence": 77.293, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.7, "rotation_up": 71.97, "upward_expansion": 48.57, "deceleration": 19.85, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 30.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 302.84, 292.267273, 278.586911, 281.576537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 323.6, "trend_reference": 298.042703, "distance_from_trend": 0.08575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 420.620632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230661, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.659441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.161499, "excess_performance": -0.212734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.230661, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.406283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38596473, "relative_activity": 1.04531, "balance": 2.406283, "dry_up": 1.148418, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061972, "annualized_volatility": 0.435849, "from_high_reference": -0.211132, "from_low_reference": 0.374681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 298.042703, "fair_value_reference": 420.620632, "structural_low": 235.399994, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054895, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015017, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.082339, "worst_return": -0.076469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078492, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.098825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082698, "worst_return": -0.222037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.149835, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.151273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.031911, "worst_return": -0.344991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 293.3, "volume": 56109631, "typical_volume": 38214485.75, "trend": 305.438856, "fair_value": 423.5577, "relative_strength": -18.636523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.34343, "energy": 24.468958, "activity_lines": [ 284.986667, 274.954545, 268.198048, 281.359357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 294.7, "volume": 37921534, "typical_volume": 38026996.65, "trend": 302.824553, "fair_value": 422.506901, "relative_strength": -18.631043, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.720712, "energy": 24.655171, "activity_lines": [ 289.446667, 279.910909, 270.733819, 280.666527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 293.3, "volume": 36986696, "typical_volume": 37383042.0, "trend": 299.970287, "fair_value": 421.45353, "relative_strength": -19.346006, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.753488, "energy": 26.923518, "activity_lines": [ 291.193333, 283.685454, 273.227876, 280.05204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 323.6, "volume": 38596473, "typical_volume": 36923485.85, "trend": 298.042703, "fair_value": 420.620632, "relative_strength": -10.659441, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.493831, "energy": 59.735579, "activity_lines": [ 302.84, 292.267273, 278.586911, 281.576537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }