{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9efb4b3f-8825-44fa-a3f7-7be711537a78", "symbol": "IDL", "name": "ID Logistics Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.682, "architecture_energy": 14.678, "architecture_maturity": 40.274, "architecture_confidence": 61.452, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.26, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 39.35, "rotation_down": 32.5, "downward_expansion": 54.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 354.233333, 352.890909, 354.35, 354.984946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 347.5, "trend_reference": 363.566667, "distance_from_trend": -0.044192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 366.676282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.394969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147239, "excess_performance": -0.200551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.473907, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15171, "relative_activity": 0.653831, "balance": 1.473907, "dry_up": 1.256203, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057886, "annualized_volatility": 0.312787, "from_high_reference": -0.252688, "from_low_reference": 0.172007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 363.566667, "fair_value_reference": 366.676282, "structural_low": 296.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.050184, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026699, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.181992, "worst_return": -0.229814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00722, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.26975, "worst_return": -0.117103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003672, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052446, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.418112, "worst_return": -0.089416, 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"2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093872, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 242.5, "volume": 9365, "typical_volume": 11446.05, "trend": 272.15, "fair_value": 268.43141, "relative_strength": -14.085079, "stage": 4, "regime": 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353.245455, 352.330952, 357.315054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 360.5, "volume": 44384, "typical_volume": 26693.35, "trend": 367.883333, "fair_value": 365.272436, "relative_strength": -8.838211, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.37667, "energy": 7.723867, "activity_lines": [ 354.9, 354.036364, 353.454762, 356.746237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 359.5, "volume": 31363, "typical_volume": 25856.5, "trend": 366.416667, "fair_value": 366.003205, "relative_strength": -10.011304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.899217, "energy": 10.700448, "activity_lines": [ 357.066667, 354.527273, 354.545238, 356.205376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 347.5, "volume": 15171, "typical_volume": 23203.25, "trend": 363.566667, "fair_value": 366.676282, "relative_strength": -14.394969, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.681841, "energy": 14.678436, "activity_lines": [ 354.233333, 352.890909, 354.35, 354.984946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }