{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9efb9605-3a67-46b3-a9f1-d2e6250f8f5d", "symbol": "PAVNAIND", "name": "Pavna Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.693, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.811, "architecture_energy": 17.041, "architecture_maturity": 86.708, "architecture_confidence": 65.566, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 54.97, "rotation_down": 36.55, "downward_expansion": 62.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.528, 17.425091, 17.753953, 18.069118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.309999, "trend_reference": 18.528, "distance_from_trend": -0.011766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.203397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.532949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.440341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00218, "excess_performance": 0.041529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161768, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.532949, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.331286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 423797, "relative_activity": 1.016527, "balance": 2.331286, "dry_up": 1.210795, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099063, "annualized_volatility": 0.676866, "from_high_reference": -0.601913, "from_low_reference": 0.297661 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.528, "fair_value_reference": 39.203397, "structural_low": 14.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.019709, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010573, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.409275, "worst_return": -0.271845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.387262, "worst_return": -0.305256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029085, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126126, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.02258, "worst_return": -0.387129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.421941, "energy": 37.876921, "activity_lines": [ 17.261334, 17.358364, 17.891191, 18.328387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.09, "volume": 238967, "typical_volume": 428526.8, "trend": 18.81, "fair_value": 39.359872, "relative_strength": -34.261311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.798404, "energy": 52.947554, "activity_lines": [ 16.79, 17.086909, 17.698, 18.136559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.110001, "volume": 1122710, "typical_volume": 415905.4, "trend": 18.655333, "fair_value": 39.284295, "relative_strength": -26.725155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.526931, "energy": 33.028161, "activity_lines": [ 17.141334, 17.239637, 17.716477, 18.091398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.309999, "volume": 423797, "typical_volume": 416906.65, "trend": 18.528, "fair_value": 39.203397, "relative_strength": -25.440341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.810828, "energy": 17.040862, "activity_lines": [ 17.528, 17.425091, 17.753953, 18.069118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }