{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f048112-8151-4b2a-bf25-07ea985f98ad", "symbol": "300191", "name": "Sino Geophysical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.379, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.538, "architecture_energy": 21.164, "architecture_maturity": 49.374, "architecture_confidence": 72.521, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.34, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 42.99, "rotation_down": 30.96, "downward_expansion": 65.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.331332, 29.301636, 31.550873, 33.181281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.599998, "trend_reference": 33.427571, "distance_from_trend": 0.005158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.356469, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.735854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.240451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074102, "excess_performance": 0.066702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.735854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.192405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.741716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118115375, "relative_activity": 1.559499, "balance": 0.741716, "dry_up": 1.804615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135458, "annualized_volatility": 0.775095, "from_high_reference": -0.418597, "from_low_reference": 0.970235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.427571, "fair_value_reference": 19.356469, "structural_low": 24.879999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01913, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.005767, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.147295, "worst_return": -0.015528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.140191, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.144646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.156841, "worst_return": 0.024737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.268814, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.245176, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.661057, "worst_return": -0.025882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005006, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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26.704, 28.552415, 32.614897, 33.424921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.389999, "volume": 160689186, "typical_volume": 80594955.9, "trend": 32.569358, "fair_value": 19.2009, "relative_strength": 16.860625, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.318925, "energy": 36.388713, "activity_lines": [ 28.052666, 28.674387, 32.201298, 33.377538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.85, "volume": 140209221, "typical_volume": 76888479.35, "trend": 32.922626, "fair_value": 19.26154, "relative_strength": 8.45331, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.094345, "energy": 31.317167, "activity_lines": [ 28.45, 28.470909, 31.613462, 33.13758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.599998, "volume": 118115375, "typical_volume": 75739324.8, "trend": 33.427571, "fair_value": 19.356469, "relative_strength": 19.240451, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.538188, "energy": 21.164154, "activity_lines": [ 30.331332, 29.301636, 31.550873, 33.181281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }