{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9f050daf-c788-442a-b306-766f3cf293b8",
    "symbol": "SNEX",
    "name": "Stonex Group Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 60.535,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -6.71,
    "architecture_energy": 20.273,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.533,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.954,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 61.58,
        "rotation_up": 14.14,
        "upward_expansion": 46.0,
        "deceleration": 87.94,
        "rotation_down": 43.14,
        "downward_expansion": 28.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        71.604,
        76.097515,
        76.624556,
        72.403639
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 65.84,
    "trend_reference": 66.281444,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.00666,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.477682,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.804939,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 3.958784,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.22897,
    "excess_performance": 0.041516,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00666,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.230997,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.804939,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.782102,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039588,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.415798,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.22897,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.984456,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6103158,
      "relative_activity": 1.452488,
      "balance": 0.984456,
      "dry_up": 1.195672,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.138484,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.618382,
      "from_high_reference": -0.304458,
      "from_low_reference": 0.806365
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 66.281444,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.477682,
      "structural_low": 45.044444,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.062033,
        "positive_rate": 0.842105,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.842105,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035482,
        "regime_survival": 0.421053,
        "best_return": 0.354518,
        "worst_return": -0.083351,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.12681,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.110398,
        "regime_survival": 0.181818,
        "best_return": 0.728178,
        "worst_return": 0.034562,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.218426,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.04811,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.452076,
        "worst_return": 0.042461,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.252734,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.16377,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.818365,
        "worst_return": 0.193022,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.086657,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.089813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.44276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.258945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.082426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.113604,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.005249,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.060177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.185554,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.028671,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.113385,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 35.449171,
        "relative_strength": 14.976759,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 34.186284,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 74.26,
        "volume": 5574799,
        "typical_volume": 4021701.9,
        "trend": 64.514,
        "fair_value": 35.80978,
        "relative_strength": 25.414557,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.733991,
        "energy": 26.882491,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 76.57,
        "volume": 4189521,
        "typical_volume": 4134070.8,
        "trend": 65.623667,
        "fair_value": 36.176599,
        "relative_strength": 27.667009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.629881,
        "energy": 24.469644,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 65.84,
        "volume": 6103158,
        "typical_volume": 4201865.1,
        "trend": 66.281444,
        "fair_value": 36.477682,
        "relative_strength": 3.958784,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -6.709808,
        "energy": 20.273272,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}