{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f058d78-a3d4-49ff-af32-777ac27a1594", "symbol": "MONC", "name": "Moncler S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.014, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.506, "architecture_energy": 34.87, "architecture_maturity": 4.023, "architecture_confidence": 57.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.48, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 13.99, "deceleration": 47.58, "rotation_down": 57.02, "downward_expansion": 55.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.928, 50.507454, 51.388798, 51.575767 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51.419998, "trend_reference": 51.434734, "distance_from_trend": -0.000287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.613771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.717162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110508, "excess_performance": -0.063739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 716, "relative_activity": 1.117702, "balance": 1.854301, "dry_up": 2.195598, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060416, "annualized_volatility": 0.376874, "from_high_reference": -0.107292, "from_low_reference": 0.15487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.434734, "fair_value_reference": 52.613771, "structural_low": 46.880001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138119, "worst_return": -0.219504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154072, "worst_return": -0.256892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072679, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.090374, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110508, "worst_return": -0.139742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.059065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030143, "worst_return": -0.148272, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051319, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 57.799301, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.2, "trend": 58.061298, "fair_value": 47.787603, "relative_strength": 12.539587, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.760186, "energy": 15.214436, "activity_lines": [ 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17.461945, "activity_lines": [ 51.266667, 52.16613, 52.214187, 52.072511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.720001, "volume": 585, "typical_volume": 589.4, "trend": 51.844316, "fair_value": 52.834203, "relative_strength": -17.439029, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.358487, "energy": 20.121367, "activity_lines": [ 50.854667, 51.864182, 52.059497, 51.989825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.18, "volume": 2789, "typical_volume": 620.1, "trend": 51.625016, "fair_value": 52.7467, "relative_strength": -22.232457, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.828499, "energy": 45.527213, "activity_lines": [ 49.844001, 51.149818, 51.689541, 51.753417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.91, "volume": 1536, "typical_volume": 613.9, "trend": 51.45856, "fair_value": 52.666628, "relative_strength": -20.662061, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.230958, "energy": 49.344867, "activity_lines": [ 49.394, 50.573818, 51.410626, 51.578255 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.419998, "volume": 716, "typical_volume": 640.6, "trend": 51.434734, "fair_value": 52.613771, "relative_strength": -18.717162, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.506419, "energy": 34.869505, "activity_lines": [ 49.928, 50.507454, 51.388798, 51.575767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }