{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f090667-f111-48f9-b532-0c1ebb924e58", "symbol": "MTC", "name": "MMTEC Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.953, "architecture_energy": 28.892, "architecture_maturity": 42.894, "architecture_confidence": 94.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.97, "rotation_up": 25.0, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 40.23, "downward_expansion": 67.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.188, 3.002545, 3.846286, 4.262194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.0, "trend_reference": 4.442333, "distance_from_trend": -0.324679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.152242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.968772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173554, "excess_performance": -0.361007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.71297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.446561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213770, "relative_activity": 0.559938, "balance": 0.663991, "dry_up": 0.414545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.45239, "annualized_volatility": 1.475251, "from_high_reference": -0.670148, "from_low_reference": 10.952191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.442333, "fair_value_reference": 5.152242, "structural_low": 2.2408, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.083053, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.096236, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 3.121212, "worst_return": -0.464344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.227768, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.240051, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.791175, "worst_return": -0.636621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.375435, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.487952, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.455882, "worst_return": -0.643253, 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"close": 3.04, "volume": 170549, "typical_volume": 380625.25, "trend": 4.419667, "fair_value": 5.189806, "relative_strength": -12.047446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.739986, "energy": 54.633518, "activity_lines": [ 2.695333, 2.972545, 4.083095, 4.37828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 165069, "typical_volume": 379679.95, "trend": 4.439667, "fair_value": 5.17378, "relative_strength": 14.944422, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.425477, "energy": 33.850632, "activity_lines": [ 3.174, 3.063636, 4.012143, 4.355075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0, "volume": 213770, "typical_volume": 381774.35, "trend": 4.442333, "fair_value": 5.152242, "relative_strength": -19.968772, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.953143, "energy": 28.892447, "activity_lines": [ 3.188, 3.002545, 3.846286, 4.262194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }