{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f0eded8-3118-4320-95a3-91c8761a5575", "symbol": "PB", "name": "President Bakery Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.7, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.424, "architecture_energy": 7.946, "architecture_maturity": 67.747, "architecture_confidence": 88.251, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 73.24, "rotation_up": 18.05, "upward_expansion": 21.47, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 29.57, "downward_expansion": 45.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.0, 47.972727, 47.950656, 48.057861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.0, "trend_reference": 48.278834, "distance_from_trend": -0.005775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.787023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.049802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02385, "excess_performance": -0.216175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12388, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.719298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15300, "relative_activity": 1.765724, "balance": 4.719298, "dry_up": 1.376226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026042, "annualized_volatility": 0.093336, "from_high_reference": -0.112591, "from_low_reference": 0.109261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.278834, "fair_value_reference": 54.787023, "structural_low": 44.009633, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.001088, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.021739, "worst_return": -0.039383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008757, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.03782, "worst_return": -0.091667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.031099, "worst_return": -0.151291, 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47.795936, 48.113324, 48.38601, 48.263871 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 48.0, "volume": 10700, "typical_volume": 13340.0, "trend": 47.978121, "fair_value": 55.981536, "relative_strength": -15.762405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.038967, "energy": 14.632793, "activity_lines": [ 47.782003, 48.074432, 48.327002, 48.265404 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 47.0, "volume": 10100, "typical_volume": 13320.0, "trend": 47.963064, "fair_value": 55.874171, "relative_strength": -18.085583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.946268, "energy": 28.698452, "activity_lines": [ 47.480139, 47.861635, 48.178341, 48.202299 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 48.0, "volume": 22900, "typical_volume": 13765.0, "trend": 47.973144, "fair_value": 55.773217, "relative_strength": -17.361647, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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"trend": 48.410617, "fair_value": 55.179166, "relative_strength": -16.538835, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.127085, "energy": 14.220929, "activity_lines": [ 47.9, 47.899273, 47.972891, 48.150281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.0, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 7405.0, "trend": 48.37972, "fair_value": 55.079671, "relative_strength": -16.847896, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.68602, "energy": 17.064847, "activity_lines": [ 47.9, 47.936364, 47.965394, 48.123789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.0, "volume": 14200, "typical_volume": 7495.0, "trend": 48.340628, "fair_value": 54.981635, "relative_strength": -16.526799, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.54618, "energy": 17.07978, "activity_lines": [ 47.933333, 47.954545, 47.95997, 48.099291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.0, "volume": 10600, "typical_volume": 7950.0, "trend": 48.301535, "fair_value": 54.886518, "relative_strength": -15.087132, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.862367, "energy": 11.348635, "activity_lines": [ 47.966667, 47.972727, 47.956619, 48.077315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.0, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 8665.0, "trend": 48.278834, "fair_value": 54.787023, "relative_strength": -14.049802, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.424145, "energy": 7.945602, "activity_lines": [ 48.0, 47.972727, 47.950656, 48.057861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }