{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f12108c-1e62-4f57-bafb-5a130a5631c7", "symbol": "ASHOKAMET", "name": "Ashoka Metcast Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.517, "architecture_energy": 53.525, "architecture_maturity": 9.727, "architecture_confidence": 67.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.29, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 19.52, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 69.23, "downward_expansion": 63.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.256, 14.548182, 15.007333, 15.00972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.23, "trend_reference": 14.925333, "distance_from_trend": -0.046587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.128205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.912379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007077, "excess_performance": 0.050786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007077, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53969, "relative_activity": 0.597972, "balance": 0.472772, "dry_up": 0.608127, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060814, "annualized_volatility": 0.402521, "from_high_reference": -0.322381, "from_low_reference": 0.173124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.925333, "fair_value_reference": 19.128205, "structural_low": 12.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.200182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.200182, "worst_return": -0.200182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.18559, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.22125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.18559, "worst_return": -0.18559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.213406, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.258367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.213406, "worst_return": -0.213406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.115368, "energy": 41.449427, "activity_lines": [ 14.541333, 14.838364, 15.185333, 15.108817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.18, "volume": 46356, "typical_volume": 91922.95, "trend": 14.948, "fair_value": 19.166474, "relative_strength": -7.931834, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.724408, "energy": 49.453212, "activity_lines": [ 14.355333, 14.672727, 15.093952, 15.056043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.23, "volume": 53969, "typical_volume": 90253.4, "trend": 14.925333, "fair_value": 19.128205, "relative_strength": -7.912379, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.517145, "energy": 53.524822, "activity_lines": [ 14.256, 14.548182, 15.007333, 15.00972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }