{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f14da3c-c57f-4104-8b51-6c88e31777fc", "symbol": "000708", "name": "Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.042, "architecture_energy": 25.574, "architecture_maturity": 78.503, "architecture_confidence": 77.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.92, "rotation_up": 36.91, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 24.73, "downward_expansion": 57.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.115333, 13.782364, 13.996409, 14.435105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 14.916123, "distance_from_trend": -0.068793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.792608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.671126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.127475, "excess_performance": -0.134875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036275, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127475, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77497704, "relative_activity": 1.341402, "balance": 0.546145, "dry_up": 1.294595, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060867, "annualized_volatility": 0.378635, "from_high_reference": -0.218819, "from_low_reference": 0.172259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.916123, "fair_value_reference": 12.792608, "structural_low": 12.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.025163, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010816, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.147181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021853, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003394, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157009, "worst_return": -0.061528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039297, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.045289, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.158425, "worst_return": -0.103938, 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"activity_lines": [ 14.055333, 13.744364, 14.056212, 14.505566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 77497704, "typical_volume": 57773679.75, "trend": 14.916123, "fair_value": 12.792608, "relative_strength": -6.671126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.04203, "energy": 25.574042, "activity_lines": [ 14.115333, 13.782364, 13.996409, 14.435105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }