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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.752, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.066, "architecture_energy": 27.249, "architecture_maturity": 55.668, "architecture_confidence": 72.768, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.57, "rotation_up": 35.49, "upward_expansion": 65.19, "deceleration": 84.97, "rotation_down": 26.14, "downward_expansion": 15.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.595522, 12.627688, 12.47814, 12.405836 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.69, "trend_reference": 12.319519, "distance_from_trend": 0.030073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.920433, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.343372, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049332, "excess_performance": -0.076293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029809, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.498617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 370324, "relative_activity": 0.662536, "balance": 1.498617, "dry_up": 0.818609, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020354, "annualized_volatility": 0.131786, "from_high_reference": -0.023226, "from_low_reference": 0.187521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.319519, "fair_value_reference": 10.920433, "structural_low": 11.621948, 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12.358528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.38, "volume": 464899, "typical_volume": 602540.95, "trend": 12.280789, "fair_value": 10.881302, "relative_strength": -4.522094, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.433552, "energy": 52.336617, "activity_lines": [ 12.653225, 12.610016, 12.422876, 12.366576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 522397, "typical_volume": 577193.95, "trend": 12.300682, "fair_value": 10.900232, "relative_strength": -4.569689, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.122004, "energy": 31.60885, "activity_lines": [ 12.587902, 12.606249, 12.441627, 12.380719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.69, "volume": 370324, "typical_volume": 558949.65, "trend": 12.319519, "fair_value": 10.920433, "relative_strength": -6.343372, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.066353, "energy": 27.248654, "activity_lines": [ 12.595522, 12.627688, 12.47814, 12.405836 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }