{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f1d3156-3eb7-4c9e-8ef9-ed7570af5d70", "symbol": "000048", "name": "Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.946, "architecture_energy": 22.743, "architecture_maturity": 58.74, "architecture_confidence": 88.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.18, "rotation_up": 35.9, "upward_expansion": 63.8, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 23.93, "downward_expansion": 13.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.846667, 20.075818, 18.334857, 18.020516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.4, "trend_reference": 17.697667, "distance_from_trend": 0.209199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.153069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324826, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.718464, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173889, "excess_performance": 0.166489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.39518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.227185, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.479403, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.775105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110327800, "relative_activity": 1.43369, "balance": 0.775105, "dry_up": 1.426008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158555, "annualized_volatility": 0.778755, "from_high_reference": -0.188779, "from_low_reference": 0.721641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.697667, "fair_value_reference": 16.153069, "structural_low": 12.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014229, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018157, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054391, "worst_return": -0.087866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012066, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.069124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253028, "worst_return": -0.082487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032321, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029663, "worst_return": -0.034979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.417476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145799, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149254, "active": 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.338697, "energy": 73.041282, "activity_lines": [ 21.036, 19.425818, 17.769667, 17.635591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.040001, "volume": 117259712, "typical_volume": 76529014.4, "trend": 17.437, "fair_value": 16.1316, "relative_strength": 7.575689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.976755, "energy": 41.406007, "activity_lines": [ 20.079334, 19.468546, 17.822762, 17.684903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.809999, "volume": 75349360, "typical_volume": 76008671.85, "trend": 17.571, "fair_value": 16.138171, "relative_strength": 13.879869, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.623556, "energy": 26.776077, "activity_lines": [ 19.434, 19.584, 17.950714, 17.773484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.4, "volume": 110327800, "typical_volume": 76953719.05, "trend": 17.697667, "fair_value": 16.153069, "relative_strength": 22.718464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.945679, "energy": 22.742664, "activity_lines": [ 19.846667, 20.075818, 18.334857, 18.020516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }