{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f1f72dd-d77b-4eea-aaf0-d6d114e6fc91", "symbol": "VPR", "name": "Volt Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.385, "architecture_energy": 93.649, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.6, "rotation_up": 8.23, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 87.38, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.110333, 0.119455, 0.134083, 0.140027 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.147417, "distance_from_trend": -0.287733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.138702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.581949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322581, "excess_performance": -0.386286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.287733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242981, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219460, "relative_activity": 1.852945, "balance": 0.307434, "dry_up": 1.3031, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086081, "annualized_volatility": 0.452975, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147417, "fair_value_reference": 0.138702, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.269231, "directional_follow_through": 0.192308, "median_excess_return": 0.014248, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.020383, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120856, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.15776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.45, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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0.155328 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.155, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 254776.45, "trend": 0.153083, "fair_value": 0.138574, "relative_strength": 3.463856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.082225, "energy": 33.611649, "activity_lines": [ 0.159, 0.158, 0.156119, 0.155441 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.135, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 182822.95, "trend": 0.15275, "fair_value": 0.138798, "relative_strength": -9.055457, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.407714, "energy": 24.187164, "activity_lines": [ 0.151, 0.153909, 0.154202, 0.154274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.12, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 180801.1, "trend": 0.152083, "fair_value": 0.138926, "relative_strength": -19.593397, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.451668, "energy": 65.865996, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.147636, 0.150952, 0.152161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.12, "volume": 128618, "typical_volume": 184375.45, "trend": 0.151583, "fair_value": 0.138734, "relative_strength": -18.940453, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.415825, "energy": 87.072219, "activity_lines": [ 0.130333, 0.141909, 0.147917, 0.150091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 191835, "typical_volume": 188085.5, "trend": 0.15075, "fair_value": 0.138542, "relative_strength": -18.636465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.200705, "energy": 91.845942, "activity_lines": [ 0.124333, 0.136818, 0.145048, 0.148054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 183195, "typical_volume": 179213.6, "trend": 0.14975, "fair_value": 0.138606, "relative_strength": -24.947861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.872829, "energy": 95.071087, "activity_lines": [ 0.117667, 0.130455, 0.141345, 0.145425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 22859, "typical_volume": 179513.0, "trend": 0.148917, "fair_value": 0.13867, "relative_strength": -26.375298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.345197, "energy": 92.73542, "activity_lines": [ 0.114, 0.125, 0.137857, 0.14286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.105, "volume": 219460, "typical_volume": 118438.5, "trend": 0.147417, "fair_value": 0.138702, "relative_strength": -31.581949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.385447, "energy": 93.648993, "activity_lines": [ 0.110333, 0.119455, 0.134083, 0.140027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }