{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f297ee1-33f0-4f5a-91cd-62482f28ce13", "symbol": "1321", "name": "Ocean Plastics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.989, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.368, "architecture_energy": 18.827, "architecture_maturity": 8.565, "architecture_confidence": 48.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.41, "rotation_up": 36.16, "upward_expansion": 37.92, "deceleration": 28.32, "rotation_down": 18.76, "downward_expansion": 43.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.046667, 31.908182, 31.366667, 31.611613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.85, "trend_reference": 32.076667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.112615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092919, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.972996, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039216, "excess_performance": -0.480588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076399, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103192, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039216, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.094634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 727100, "relative_activity": 0.754621, "balance": 2.094634, "dry_up": 0.716668, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043715, "annualized_volatility": 0.183983, "from_high_reference": -0.157786, "from_low_reference": 0.135472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.076667, "fair_value_reference": 35.112615, "structural_low": 28.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014591, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.03618, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.103597, "worst_return": -0.077519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015787, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.066385, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.099259, "worst_return": -0.151163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000879, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064222, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.060086, "worst_return": -0.125348, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-08", 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"activity_lines": [ 32.11, 31.754546, 31.291191, 31.65785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.9, "volume": 595011, "typical_volume": 1002724.95, "trend": 32.181667, "fair_value": 35.126398, "relative_strength": -32.546553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.297988, "energy": 15.103891, "activity_lines": [ 32.086667, 31.863637, 31.328096, 31.633011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.85, "volume": 727100, "typical_volume": 963529.9, "trend": 32.076667, "fair_value": 35.112615, "relative_strength": -33.972996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.367578, "energy": 18.826914, "activity_lines": [ 32.046667, 31.908182, 31.366667, 31.611613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }