{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f2b51e3-951f-4787-aaaf-cf882106155e", "symbol": "688779", "name": "Minmetals New Energy Materials(Hunan)Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.873, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.087, "architecture_energy": 59.31, "architecture_maturity": 28.193, "architecture_confidence": 90.907, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.08, "rotation_up": 22.24, "upward_expansion": 10.44, "deceleration": 53.3, "rotation_down": 59.39, "downward_expansion": 83.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.454667, 7.608935, 8.366681, 8.969668 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.89, "trend_reference": 9.492609, "distance_from_trend": -0.168827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.84031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.014916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.208626, "excess_performance": -0.165422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012664, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208626, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125420540, "relative_activity": 0.928791, "balance": 0.762253, "dry_up": 1.076722, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100312, "annualized_volatility": 0.429547, "from_high_reference": -0.382629, "from_low_reference": 0.419065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.492609, "fair_value_reference": 6.84031, "structural_low": 6.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014467, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.013241, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.152047, "worst_return": -0.259654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.183626, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.147126, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.169165, "worst_return": -0.241349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.184437, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.20264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.578495, "worst_return": -0.419233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 7.01, "volume": 183595469, "typical_volume": 142920200.75, "trend": 9.485943, "fair_value": 6.880758, "relative_strength": -13.114301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.127038, "energy": 86.748453, "activity_lines": [ 7.201333, 7.70487, 8.671236, 9.192586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.62, "volume": 148776857, "typical_volume": 138191669.05, "trend": 9.479276, "fair_value": 6.859604, "relative_strength": -6.322445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.930199, "energy": 76.550564, "activity_lines": [ 7.274667, 7.614036, 8.495911, 9.072202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.89, "volume": 125420540, "typical_volume": 135036311.1, "trend": 9.492609, "fair_value": 6.84031, "relative_strength": -6.014916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.087095, "energy": 59.310068, "activity_lines": [ 7.454667, 7.608935, 8.366681, 8.969668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }