{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f31701c-ebd5-49f4-b395-e11d523984a2", "symbol": "CHARAN", "name": "Charan Insurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.96, "architecture_energy": 28.473, "architecture_maturity": 31.84, "architecture_confidence": 51.01, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.89, "rotation_up": 41.05, "upward_expansion": 69.23, "deceleration": 67.36, "rotation_down": 26.4, "downward_expansion": 9.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.373333, 17.256363, 17.19794, 16.926861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 16.644341, "distance_from_trend": 0.075441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.237811, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.569831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098159, "excess_performance": -0.094166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025698, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008877, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098159, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33400, "relative_activity": 1.011968, "balance": 0.477668, "dry_up": 1.035449, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04985, "annualized_volatility": 0.329394, "from_high_reference": -0.057895, "from_low_reference": 0.83382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.644341, "fair_value_reference": 18.237811, "structural_low": 14.404651, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016398, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029795, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04918, "worst_return": -0.143564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070161, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.099687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130587, "worst_return": -0.267327, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.206667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048387, "worst_return": -0.306931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.5, "volume": 99100, "typical_volume": 31800.0, "trend": 16.341647, "fair_value": 18.368711, "relative_strength": -7.056097, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.546554, "energy": 13.948843, "activity_lines": [ 17.026667, 17.201818, 17.011309, 16.747764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 31380.0, "trend": 16.48186, "fair_value": 18.31771, "relative_strength": -4.350237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.718468, "energy": 15.091986, "activity_lines": [ 17.02, 17.141818, 17.04134, 16.790239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 31570.0, "trend": 16.600484, "fair_value": 18.272955, "relative_strength": -1.438445, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.650166, "energy": 19.846476, "activity_lines": [ 17.113333, 17.143636, 17.094803, 16.843022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.9, "volume": 33400, "typical_volume": 33005.0, "trend": 16.644341, "fair_value": 18.237811, "relative_strength": 2.569831, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.959966, "energy": 28.473256, "activity_lines": [ 17.373333, 17.256363, 17.19794, 16.926861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }