{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f328f0a-6c1d-4d8f-8c53-8ba5cf67fce6", "symbol": "VRIF", "name": "Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.469, "architecture_energy": 26.202, "architecture_maturity": 56.582, "architecture_confidence": 74.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.01, "rotation_up": 28.42, "upward_expansion": 58.06, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 19.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.057284, 27.11851, 27.048396, 26.905393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.219999, "trend_reference": 26.756828, "distance_from_trend": 0.01731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.957514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.295242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024855, "excess_performance": -0.095567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01731, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35400, "relative_activity": 0.446575, "balance": 0.821721, "dry_up": 0.731992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009713, "annualized_volatility": 0.067523, "from_high_reference": -0.006314, "from_low_reference": 0.089588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.756828, "fair_value_reference": 23.957514, "structural_low": 25.780552, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009351, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00301, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.039402, "worst_return": -0.01682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01799, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004869, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.062135, "worst_return": 0.005227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048191, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.071628, "worst_return": 0.016164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.341745, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 85175.0, "trend": 26.604001, "fair_value": 23.759418, "relative_strength": -6.527344, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.917771, "energy": 77.707312, "activity_lines": [ 27.286843, 27.168158, 26.910635, 26.782168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.192228, "volume": 89300, "typical_volume": 85455.0, "trend": 26.645312, "fair_value": 23.799774, "relative_strength": -6.885708, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.082618, "energy": 68.435583, "activity_lines": [ 27.273851, 27.194032, 26.954274, 26.820118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.962967, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 84160.0, "trend": 26.676522, "fair_value": 23.838546, "relative_strength": -7.26366, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.452424, "energy": 42.092826, "activity_lines": [ 27.168581, 27.168461, 26.974764, 26.840612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.943033, "volume": 76900, "typical_volume": 82405.0, "trend": 26.703459, "fair_value": 23.876847, "relative_strength": -7.300509, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.585341, "energy": 27.872696, "activity_lines": [ 27.072706, 27.138202, 26.993559, 26.857806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.953001, "volume": 69800, "typical_volume": 81375.0, "trend": 26.731945, "fair_value": 23.91598, "relative_strength": -6.5561, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.745959, "energy": 23.994218, "activity_lines": [ 27.010149, 27.104162, 27.010321, 26.873906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.219999, "volume": 35400, "typical_volume": 79270.0, "trend": 26.756828, "fair_value": 23.957514, "relative_strength": -8.295242, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.469193, "energy": 26.202475, "activity_lines": [ 27.057284, 27.11851, 27.048396, 26.905393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }