{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f332060-89d7-4770-85d2-ac90e5643c07", "symbol": "C2HD34", "name": "Churchill Downs Incorporated", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -92.447, "architecture_energy": 76.369, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.403, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.72, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 55.97, "downward_expansion": 78.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.86, 21.987273, 22.422095, 22.700581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.120001, "trend_reference": 23.341667, "distance_from_trend": -0.09518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.473964, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.765271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.12979, "excess_performance": -0.072741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306949, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.009804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.012392, "balance": 0.009804, "dry_up": 0.003098, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011582, "annualized_volatility": 0.141224, "from_high_reference": -0.359612, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.341667, "fair_value_reference": 30.473964, "structural_low": 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23.330762, 24.198363 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 22.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 82.2, "trend": 25.305397, "fair_value": 31.030081, "relative_strength": -21.087196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.723664, "energy": 77.018542, "activity_lines": [ 22.56, 23.064363, 23.179047, 23.981656 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 22.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 82.0, "trend": 25.134611, "fair_value": 30.969876, "relative_strength": -19.275654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.688191, "energy": 87.281882, "activity_lines": [ 22.272, 22.847636, 23.05719, 23.773566 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 81.25, "trend": 24.901667, "fair_value": 30.899361, "relative_strength": -20.82967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.707994, "energy": 90.089572, "activity_lines": [ 22.112, 22.649454, 22.950571, 23.576494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.7, "trend": 24.655, "fair_value": 30.828846, "relative_strength": -20.673905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.660286, "energy": 89.015921, "activity_lines": [ 22.08, 22.470545, 22.854381, 23.394451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.23, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 80.75, "trend": 24.413333, "fair_value": 30.759293, "relative_strength": -21.066635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.274645, "energy": 73.859546, "activity_lines": [ 22.13, 22.351636, 22.778524, 23.238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.75, "trend": 24.171667, "fair_value": 30.68974, "relative_strength": -18.454881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.785578, "energy": 67.595608, "activity_lines": [ 22.17, 22.262727, 22.708, 23.09714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.75, "trend": 23.93, "fair_value": 30.620186, "relative_strength": -17.871406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.449187, "energy": 67.108218, "activity_lines": [ 22.2, 22.206, 22.642809, 22.971871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.7, "trend": 23.625, "fair_value": 30.550633, "relative_strength": -18.917801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.646012, "energy": 62.359261, "activity_lines": [ 22.22, 22.181455, 22.582952, 22.862193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.120001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 80.7, "trend": 23.341667, "fair_value": 30.473964, "relative_strength": -19.765271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.447367, "energy": 76.369053, "activity_lines": [ 21.86, 21.987273, 22.422095, 22.700581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }