{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f3f6824-f483-4c4b-b78b-e64986b25276", "symbol": "601019", "name": "Shandong Publishing&Media Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.866, "architecture_energy": 29.507, "architecture_maturity": 90.272, "architecture_confidence": 76.855, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.52, "rotation_up": 37.79, "upward_expansion": 22.55, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 22.84, "downward_expansion": 56.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.224, 7.069106, 7.087441, 7.421774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.98, "trend_reference": 7.895008, "distance_from_trend": -0.115897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.293077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.498996, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240479, "excess_performance": -0.197275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61275508, "relative_activity": 1.43696, "balance": 0.803603, "dry_up": 1.402672, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052836, "annualized_volatility": 0.339698, "from_high_reference": -0.268344, "from_low_reference": 0.083851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.895008, "fair_value_reference": 9.293077, "structural_low": 6.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011425, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.138947, "worst_return": -0.088235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01528, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022455, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.136422, "worst_return": -0.166134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035454, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041776, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076401, "worst_return": -0.052377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.792844, 7.191969, 7.612314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.3, "volume": 53561247, "typical_volume": 39019278.1, "trend": 8.035341, "fair_value": 9.313078, "relative_strength": -6.995149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.165583, "energy": 49.422025, "activity_lines": [ 6.952576, 6.870697, 7.155778, 7.561926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.31, "volume": 71970472, "typical_volume": 40456677.9, "trend": 7.986675, "fair_value": 9.307657, "relative_strength": -7.569409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.790292, "energy": 33.459882, "activity_lines": [ 7.113333, 6.95096, 7.129681, 7.51513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.51, "volume": 52446418, "typical_volume": 41159492.8, "trend": 7.950341, "fair_value": 9.301977, "relative_strength": -4.983633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.442739, "energy": 32.060093, "activity_lines": [ 7.292667, 7.062902, 7.130347, 7.484377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.98, "volume": 61275508, "typical_volume": 42642471.85, "trend": 7.895008, "fair_value": 9.293077, "relative_strength": -13.498996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.865801, "energy": 29.507052, "activity_lines": [ 7.224, 7.069106, 7.087441, 7.421774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }