{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f4b7a82-98bb-4789-b8b4-d4ddb0ef616c", "symbol": "TOKY3", "name": "GRUPO TOKY ON NM", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.89, "architecture_energy": 66.619, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.606, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.06, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 49.7, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.34, 0.358364, 0.527, 0.819161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 1.269333, "distance_from_trend": -0.803046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.282194, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.960205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -90.353596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.897541, "excess_performance": -0.840493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.803046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.960205, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.903536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.897541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 892700, "relative_activity": 1.098971, "balance": 0.457634, "dry_up": 1.208198, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.670769, "annualized_volatility": 1.373811, "from_high_reference": -0.949589, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.269333, "fair_value_reference": 6.282194, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.040211, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.028367, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.362776, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.084821, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.08464, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.329843, "worst_return": -0.664286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02414, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.884817, "worst_return": -0.82197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.367901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", 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-64.832602, "energy": 65.378344, "activity_lines": [ 0.396667, 0.416727, 0.69381, 1.037763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.46, "volume": 731700, "typical_volume": 729392.5, "trend": 1.454333, "fair_value": 6.477166, "relative_strength": -83.803367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.229991, "energy": 58.791544, "activity_lines": [ 0.428667, 0.416545, 0.643476, 0.96643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 1524800, "typical_volume": 783760.0, "trend": 1.358333, "fair_value": 6.377742, "relative_strength": -89.953358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.871936, "energy": 62.047875, "activity_lines": [ 0.389333, 0.387636, 0.583143, 0.890667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 892700, "typical_volume": 812305.0, "trend": 1.269333, "fair_value": 6.282194, "relative_strength": -90.353596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.890153, "energy": 66.619478, "activity_lines": [ 0.34, 0.358364, 0.527, 0.819161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }