{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f4caa6c-487b-40f9-bd6e-ca89059d65f9", "symbol": "SHOO", "name": "Steven Madden Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.74, "architecture_energy": 66.7, "architecture_maturity": 18.894, "architecture_confidence": 88.495, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 64.27, "upward_expansion": 84.36, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 14.37, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.621333, 44.358125, 42.997398, 41.340849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.58, "trend_reference": 40.10998, "distance_from_trend": 0.21117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.507023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.493337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.37514, "excess_performance": 0.187686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.21117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190399, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114933, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104915, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.37514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.516969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5984025, "relative_activity": 1.146149, "balance": 1.516969, "dry_up": 1.014143, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076035, "annualized_volatility": 0.405931, "from_high_reference": -0.022535, "from_low_reference": 1.027033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.10998, "fair_value_reference": 36.507023, "structural_low": 31.180487, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.012489, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.029292, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.159558, "worst_return": -0.207325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074608, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.350867, "worst_return": -0.256066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014154, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.02273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157475, "worst_return": -0.012197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.129013, "energy": 19.066084, "activity_lines": [ 42.434667, 42.879389, 41.598857, 40.382657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.08, "volume": 7557654, "typical_volume": 5288597.9, "trend": 39.976221, "fair_value": 36.405035, "relative_strength": 11.989853, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.811024, "energy": 38.717436, "activity_lines": [ 43.706667, 43.43097, 42.214448, 40.785766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.58, "volume": 5984025, "typical_volume": 5220982.25, "trend": 40.10998, "fair_value": 36.507023, "relative_strength": 11.493337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.740072, "energy": 66.699603, "activity_lines": [ 45.621333, 44.358125, 42.997398, 41.340849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }