{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f4e97d0-4941-4df2-a8df-e4f6a9c843b2", "symbol": "SABA", "name": "Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.868, "architecture_energy": 21.718, "architecture_maturity": 13.432, "architecture_confidence": 50.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.2, "rotation_up": 44.5, "upward_expansion": 63.98, "deceleration": 57.79, "rotation_down": 17.57, "downward_expansion": 9.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.280433, 8.250284, 8.272587, 8.225439 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.3393, "trend_reference": 8.141595, "distance_from_trend": 0.024283, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.425715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.538718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075411, "excess_performance": -0.050214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024283, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.16815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140348, "relative_activity": 0.537667, "balance": 1.16815, "dry_up": 0.652084, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027333, "annualized_volatility": 0.104123, "from_high_reference": -0.037134, "from_low_reference": 0.078096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.141595, "fair_value_reference": 7.425715, "structural_low": 7.735208, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007622, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.013741, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051953, "worst_return": -0.086815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012627, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011103, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.094653, "worst_return": -0.044239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09168, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.048735, "worst_return": -0.04904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -10.57016, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.601282, "energy": 12.470051, "activity_lines": [ 8.188699, 8.234148, 8.248337, 8.181476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.34, "volume": 220915, "typical_volume": 319315.65, "trend": 8.113139, "fair_value": 7.38853, "relative_strength": -7.061354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.431058, "energy": 11.281168, "activity_lines": [ 8.23948, 8.245894, 8.262288, 8.196727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.23, "volume": 158692, "typical_volume": 296763.95, "trend": 8.120895, "fair_value": 7.400138, "relative_strength": -7.389144, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.251995, "energy": 14.075737, "activity_lines": [ 8.245716, 8.238701, 8.263287, 8.204267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.24, "volume": 160903, "typical_volume": 295214.0, "trend": 8.13023, "fair_value": 7.412487, "relative_strength": -7.891232, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.386341, "energy": 14.551346, "activity_lines": [ 8.249447, 8.234451, 8.263936, 8.211951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3393, "volume": 140348, "typical_volume": 261031.45, "trend": 8.141595, "fair_value": 7.425715, "relative_strength": -9.538718, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.868265, "energy": 21.717807, "activity_lines": [ 8.280433, 8.250284, 8.272587, 8.225439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }