{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f4ffc57-a3f4-417a-96f4-9621e0da5b8a", "symbol": "FPX", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND FIRST TRUST US EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.581, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.744, "architecture_energy": 19.505, "architecture_maturity": 60.951, "architecture_confidence": 85.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.83, "rotation_up": 15.83, "upward_expansion": 45.6, "deceleration": 87.95, "rotation_down": 41.36, "downward_expansion": 28.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.967267, 186.670482, 187.178022, 182.839267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 181.4138, "trend_reference": 177.094838, "distance_from_trend": 0.024388, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.216396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.842142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115227, "excess_performance": -0.010398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024388, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403953, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207553, "relative_activity": 0.933014, "balance": 0.886139, "dry_up": 1.254516, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060215, "annualized_volatility": 0.209648, "from_high_reference": -0.120119, "from_low_reference": 0.275484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.094838, "fair_value_reference": 129.216396, "structural_low": 151.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014743, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00462, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.122579, "worst_return": -0.064354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012988, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034243, "worst_return": -0.108384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18216, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183125, "worst_return": 0.113438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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194039, "typical_volume": 200819.55, "trend": 176.223915, "fair_value": 128.045028, "relative_strength": 0.424365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.09928, "energy": 20.620827, "activity_lines": [ 188.276, 190.845853, 187.724703, 182.453337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 177.43, "volume": 426456, "typical_volume": 218093.35, "trend": 176.637958, "fair_value": 128.606939, "relative_strength": -3.727665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.534321, "energy": 18.111751, "activity_lines": [ 183.848, 188.291777, 187.303321, 182.531149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 181.4138, "volume": 207553, "typical_volume": 222454.35, "trend": 177.094838, "fair_value": 129.216396, "relative_strength": -4.842142, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.743628, "energy": 19.504841, "activity_lines": [ 181.967267, 186.670482, 187.178022, 182.839267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }