{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f54410e-c8cd-4ee7-9bd2-3afb6e595cec", "symbol": "002842", "name": "Guangdong Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.811, "architecture_energy": 23.374, "architecture_maturity": 38.147, "architecture_confidence": 50.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.66, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 69.53, "rotation_down": 60.91, "downward_expansion": 37.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.406667, 36.723873, 36.882868, 36.177541 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.380001, "trend_reference": 34.087114, "distance_from_trend": 0.125939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.885471, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.978549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 56.440876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.469372, "excess_performance": 0.461972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.343451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.978549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.564409, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.469372, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238842528, "relative_activity": 1.366445, "balance": 0.611088, "dry_up": 1.087405, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177136, "annualized_volatility": 0.939593, "from_high_reference": -0.295004, "from_low_reference": 3.31236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.087114, "fair_value_reference": 12.885471, "structural_low": 24.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023545, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.052379, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.268987, "worst_return": -0.350515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055779, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.029187, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.357595, "worst_return": -0.231754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004861, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.124108, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.697785, "worst_return": -0.362356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.077199, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.743134, "worst_return": -0.422773, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.35443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.417871, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.623591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", 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"volume": 126740659, "typical_volume": 171076143.3, "trend": 33.289781, "fair_value": 12.694509, "relative_strength": 29.70154, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.770293, "energy": 36.301528, "activity_lines": [ 32.120666, 36.602897, 36.637837, 35.84914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.380001, "volume": 238842528, "typical_volume": 174791179.45, "trend": 34.087114, "fair_value": 12.885471, "relative_strength": 56.440876, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.810911, "energy": 23.374215, "activity_lines": [ 33.406667, 36.723873, 36.882868, 36.177541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }