{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f54588c-8edd-4ef4-b2e2-520970589fbf", "symbol": "IAI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST US BRKR-DEALERS & SEC EXCH", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.59, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.345, "architecture_energy": 46.826, "architecture_maturity": 17.547, "architecture_confidence": 79.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.56, "rotation_up": 58.54, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 50.94, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 7.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 187.482, 186.067982, 183.117297, 179.822589 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 188.25, "trend_reference": 177.355993, "distance_from_trend": 0.061425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 141.444441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330911, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.732335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06192, "excess_performance": -0.063705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06192, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.462858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298362, "relative_activity": 0.610783, "balance": 1.462858, "dry_up": 0.773939, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040725, "annualized_volatility": 0.196734, "from_high_reference": -0.041692, "from_low_reference": 0.19615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.355993, "fair_value_reference": 141.444441, "structural_low": 157.379887, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.009969, "positive_rate": 0.628571, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": 0.005558, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.099111, "worst_return": -0.152983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.052665, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.00389, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.249517, "worst_return": -0.158818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031595, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.008059, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.325553, "worst_return": -0.137971, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 186.9, "volume": 361539, "typical_volume": 500700.6, "trend": 177.039852, "fair_value": 140.229157, "relative_strength": -1.434621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.40944, "energy": 61.514743, "activity_lines": [ 186.524, 184.828697, 181.257015, 178.516697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 186.26, "volume": 284286, "typical_volume": 488247.55, "trend": 177.228823, "fair_value": 140.827495, "relative_strength": -2.65143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.076939, "energy": 57.812197, "activity_lines": [ 187.019333, 185.329487, 182.152766, 179.111545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 188.25, "volume": 298362, "typical_volume": 488490.85, "trend": 177.355993, "fair_value": 141.444441, "relative_strength": -4.732335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.344781, "energy": 46.825577, "activity_lines": [ 187.482, 186.067982, 183.117297, 179.822589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }