{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f5a35b5-a8da-4bb1-a846-1ae2d8966b7b", "symbol": "XIFE", "name": "Xtrackers Global Infrastructure", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.764, "architecture_energy": 10.74, "architecture_maturity": 19.525, "architecture_confidence": 42.702, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.25, "rotation_up": 31.59, "upward_expansion": 59.01, "deceleration": 62.78, "rotation_down": 25.74, "downward_expansion": 16.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.216, 32.279364, 32.217595, 32.192527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 31.965, "trend_reference": 32.034167, "distance_from_trend": -0.002159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.034471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.594056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036479, "excess_performance": -0.134413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036479, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329, "relative_activity": 0.18882, "balance": 0.618249, "dry_up": 1.024306, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017471, "annualized_volatility": 0.151287, "from_high_reference": -0.044823, "from_low_reference": 0.133913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.034167, "fair_value_reference": 30.034471, "structural_low": 30.674999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005894, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006336, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.005894, "worst_return": -0.005894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008376, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 27.045, "volume": 225, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 27.045, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 32.724998, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.235001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2133.8, "trend": 31.6095, "fair_value": 29.894688, "relative_strength": -10.711485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.364219, "energy": 40.911023, "activity_lines": [ 32.356667, 32.206727, 32.185714, 32.039032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.110001, "volume": 1048, "typical_volume": 2118.65, "trend": 31.695, "fair_value": 29.922037, "relative_strength": -10.418711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.493626, "energy": 28.570361, "activity_lines": [ 32.284334, 32.205273, 32.171857, 32.071323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.580002, "volume": 1545, "typical_volume": 1991.6, "trend": 31.794833, "fair_value": 29.954451, "relative_strength": -7.588871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.07554, "energy": 37.035647, "activity_lines": [ 32.377334, 32.295001, 32.205024, 32.12842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.654999, "volume": 2290, "typical_volume": 1902.2, "trend": 31.904, "fair_value": 29.986988, "relative_strength": -6.982176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.239857, "energy": 32.791089, "activity_lines": [ 32.474667, 32.384819, 32.249215, 32.183914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.044998, "volume": 2975, "typical_volume": 1775.8, "trend": 31.9725, "fair_value": 30.011488, "relative_strength": -9.04566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.247542, "energy": 17.015669, "activity_lines": [ 32.336, 32.339, 32.235095, 32.193011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.965, "volume": 329, "typical_volume": 1742.4, "trend": 32.034167, "fair_value": 30.034471, "relative_strength": -11.594056, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.76443, "energy": 10.739565, "activity_lines": [ 32.216, 32.279364, 32.217595, 32.192527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }