{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f635fd1-39b4-4c11-99df-d719cc6c1d58", "symbol": "600233", "name": "YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.147, "architecture_energy": 22.196, "architecture_maturity": 51.744, "architecture_confidence": 49.262, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.06, "rotation_up": 39.46, "upward_expansion": 23.21, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 17.98, "downward_expansion": 52.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.042, 17.433749, 17.915713, 18.36047 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.49, "trend_reference": 18.546129, "distance_from_trend": -0.003026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.243485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.12946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095379, "excess_performance": 0.138583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00351, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031295, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095379, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118949435, "relative_activity": 1.218093, "balance": 0.883665, "dry_up": 1.256407, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07709, "annualized_volatility": 0.377005, "from_high_reference": -0.179106, "from_low_reference": 0.217248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.546129, "fair_value_reference": 15.243485, "structural_low": 15.19, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.016855, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009314, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.31961, "worst_return": -0.107829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000942, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.024896, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.3238, "worst_return": -0.213368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015539, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.797753, "worst_return": -0.124303, "sufficient": false 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"volume": 154970087, "typical_volume": 97481319.9, "trend": 18.395462, "fair_value": 15.173758, "relative_strength": 0.520111, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.778729, "energy": 35.419749, "activity_lines": [ 16.699334, 16.8622, 18.090911, 18.403548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.26, "volume": 109742794, "typical_volume": 97430194.1, "trend": 18.405129, "fair_value": 15.192742, "relative_strength": -0.157817, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.692839, "energy": 30.181143, "activity_lines": [ 16.976667, 16.85078, 17.932988, 18.330293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.860001, "volume": 107101145, "typical_volume": 97266392.25, "trend": 18.477129, "fair_value": 15.219117, "relative_strength": 8.277025, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.419946, "energy": 18.950963, "activity_lines": [ 17.690001, 17.179763, 17.937588, 18.359639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.49, "volume": 118949435, "typical_volume": 97652139.7, "trend": 18.546129, "fair_value": 15.243485, "relative_strength": 3.12946, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.146798, "energy": 22.195853, "activity_lines": [ 18.042, 17.433749, 17.915713, 18.36047 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }