{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f655493-c689-4f5d-bfe4-edc62e0284dd", "symbol": "000712", "name": "Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.834, "architecture_energy": 32.557, "architecture_maturity": 61.88, "architecture_confidence": 56.334, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.16, "rotation_up": 23.47, "upward_expansion": 15.24, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 42.46, "downward_expansion": 65.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.856, 8.802364, 9.262333, 9.74028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.4, "trend_reference": 10.47, "distance_from_trend": -0.102197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.396667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.122367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.20541, "excess_performance": -0.21281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.562323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175070095, "relative_activity": 1.725662, "balance": 2.562323, "dry_up": 1.201157, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11473, "annualized_volatility": 0.488598, "from_high_reference": -0.405815, "from_low_reference": 0.163366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.47, "fair_value_reference": 12.396667, "structural_low": 8.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.005341, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.007329, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.29563, "worst_return": -0.249313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027781, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013241, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.184441, "worst_return": -0.180556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035423, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.194056, "worst_return": -0.287854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163701, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.47, "volume": 40826862, "typical_volume": 21451544.2, "trend": 13.430333, "fair_value": 14.818784, "relative_strength": 1.835494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.145949, "energy": 63.641943, "activity_lines": [ 8.8, 9.178, 9.721333, 10.255828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.27, "volume": 80243946, "typical_volume": 97868953.5, "trend": 10.782333, "fair_value": 12.467564, "relative_strength": -33.182573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.491862, "energy": 58.913155, "activity_lines": [ 8.615333, 8.941818, 9.532762, 10.083785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.38, "volume": 111728655, "typical_volume": 99145634.35, "trend": 10.664667, "fair_value": 12.439487, "relative_strength": -31.706148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.049482, "energy": 53.114847, "activity_lines": [ 8.498, 8.763818, 9.377, 9.928796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.9, "volume": 120391602, "typical_volume": 97158057.8, "trend": 10.557333, "fair_value": 12.416667, "relative_strength": -25.356453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.895843, "energy": 46.498484, "activity_lines": [ 8.6, 8.727636, 9.290429, 9.814946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.4, "volume": 175070095, "typical_volume": 101450973.25, "trend": 10.47, "fair_value": 12.396667, "relative_strength": -24.122367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.834313, "energy": 32.557317, "activity_lines": [ 8.856, 8.802364, 9.262333, 9.74028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }