{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f6d99d0-7c88-4009-9a28-7acec417fa12", "symbol": "TA", "name": "TransAlta Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.885, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.412, "architecture_energy": 19.744, "architecture_maturity": 27.581, "architecture_confidence": 65.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.31, "rotation_up": 17.94, "upward_expansion": 29.32, "deceleration": 72.68, "rotation_down": 55.15, "downward_expansion": 26.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.140666, 18.656545, 18.585518, 18.39535 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.32, "trend_reference": 18.16466, "distance_from_trend": -0.0465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.444561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.697539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039056, "excess_performance": -0.159477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057972, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.345541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7613500, "relative_activity": 1.268937, "balance": 1.345541, "dry_up": 1.340025, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07528, "annualized_volatility": 0.391542, "from_high_reference": -0.303266, "from_low_reference": 0.108835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.16466, "fair_value_reference": 14.444561, "structural_low": 15.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.004395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099491, "worst_return": -0.141815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044544, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006962, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.420059, "worst_return": -0.118521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063499, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.104606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.919439, "worst_return": -0.280299, "sufficient": false }, { 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19.286667, 18.950364, 18.440523, 18.238289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.15, "volume": 8321100, "typical_volume": 5796105.0, "trend": 18.056165, "fair_value": 14.307349, "relative_strength": -2.590992, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.996988, "energy": 67.174847, "activity_lines": [ 19.670667, 19.242364, 18.628741, 18.375826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.610001, "volume": 7900600, "typical_volume": 5839795.0, "trend": 18.103598, "fair_value": 14.344708, "relative_strength": -9.674257, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.56621, "energy": 46.1061, "activity_lines": [ 19.377334, 19.196, 18.661971, 18.411557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 7079100, "typical_volume": 5800305.0, "trend": 18.167721, "fair_value": 14.387709, "relative_strength": -6.422467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.906911, "energy": 33.497282, "activity_lines": [ 19.324, 19.254727, 18.761582, 18.488744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.559999, "volume": 9566900, "typical_volume": 6013280.0, "trend": 18.159895, "fair_value": 14.417422, "relative_strength": -14.153969, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.841799, "energy": 10.422433, "activity_lines": [ 18.705333, 18.966727, 18.68605, 18.449536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.32, "volume": 7613500, "typical_volume": 5999905.0, "trend": 18.16466, "fair_value": 14.444561, "relative_strength": -17.697539, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.41156, "energy": 19.74386, "activity_lines": [ 18.140666, 18.656545, 18.585518, 18.39535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }