{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f6db337-2e03-4cd9-ad77-123c49bf7579", "symbol": "TPT", "name": "Topps Tiles Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.64, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.334, "architecture_energy": 9.498, "architecture_maturity": 13.908, "architecture_confidence": 64.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.59, "rotation_up": 32.86, "upward_expansion": 31.57, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 20.66, "downward_expansion": 42.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3528, 0.3474, 0.346014, 0.350748 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.361, "trend_reference": 0.363867, "distance_from_trend": -0.007879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.364691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.634462, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.156369, "excess_performance": -0.207604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055985, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.74517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1912342, "relative_activity": 1.290511, "balance": 2.74517, "dry_up": 0.919485, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073303, "annualized_volatility": 0.318705, "from_high_reference": -0.240905, "from_low_reference": 0.228723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.363867, "fair_value_reference": 0.364691, "structural_low": 0.293801, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.023878, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.016254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159421, "worst_return": -0.135255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039661, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.081695, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.276119, "worst_return": -0.138461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060038, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.164374, "worst_return": -0.232615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146576, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188593, "worst_return": -0.33401, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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0.345228, 0.357796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.34, "volume": 1296551, "typical_volume": 1618476.4, "trend": 0.373374, "fair_value": 0.366474, "relative_strength": -11.630926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.62711, "energy": 33.238413, "activity_lines": [ 0.338667, 0.340732, 0.343959, 0.355374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.346, "volume": 1112581, "typical_volume": 1617161.65, "trend": 0.370773, "fair_value": 0.366065, "relative_strength": -10.682485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.309793, "energy": 25.923263, "activity_lines": [ 0.340933, 0.341547, 0.343676, 0.353608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.345, "volume": 653052, "typical_volume": 1564881.8, "trend": 0.368463, "fair_value": 0.365439, "relative_strength": -11.738632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.868747, "energy": 18.708723, "activity_lines": [ 0.343, 0.342185, 0.343549, 0.351946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.355, "volume": 1772176, "typical_volume": 1481964.25, "trend": 0.366097, "fair_value": 0.365035, "relative_strength": -10.139078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.199956, "energy": 12.615534, "activity_lines": [ 0.3474, 0.34438, 0.344482, 0.351077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.361, "volume": 1912342, "typical_volume": 1481848.55, "trend": 0.363867, "fair_value": 0.364691, "relative_strength": -8.634462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.333793, "energy": 9.498478, "activity_lines": [ 0.3528, 0.3474, 0.346014, 0.350748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }