{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f704904-1cdd-4c04-9ac1-7783cc080e94", "symbol": "PO1", "name": "POB AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.926, "architecture_energy": 77.602, "architecture_maturity": 40.333, "architecture_confidence": 92.796, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 40.59, "rotation_down": 53.95, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.367333, 1.371636, 1.448524, 1.487462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 1.531333, "distance_from_trend": -0.111885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.932628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.536252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.239594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160494, "excess_performance": -0.225134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.536252, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.49106, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029412, "annualized_volatility": 0.250101, "from_high_reference": -0.295337, "from_low_reference": 0.046154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.531333, "fair_value_reference": 2.932628, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009346, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008089, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.146667, "worst_return": -0.160377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.153266, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.216855, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.03871, "worst_return": -0.218254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.150525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.251808, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.083871, "worst_return": -0.384921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.545652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.301587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.853395, "energy": 84.933115, "activity_lines": [ 1.369333, 1.41, 1.49181, 1.522151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.37, "volume": 2005, "typical_volume": 1077.5, "trend": 1.545, "fair_value": 3.01641, "relative_strength": -16.669965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.597118, "energy": 84.414773, "activity_lines": [ 1.368667, 1.391818, 1.476619, 1.510258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.37, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1052.5, "trend": 1.538333, "fair_value": 2.974551, "relative_strength": -17.964452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.946504, "energy": 74.607523, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.379636, 1.462571, 1.498968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1020.75, "trend": 1.531333, "fair_value": 2.932628, "relative_strength": -20.239594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.925519, "energy": 77.602089, "activity_lines": [ 1.367333, 1.371636, 1.448524, 1.487462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }