{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f71bec9-784b-4141-9497-eb37d0e5f3ee", "symbol": "CHM", "name": "Chimeric Therapeutics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.751, "architecture_energy": 89.084, "architecture_maturity": 65.477, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 63.61, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.041667, 0.048764, 0.077081, 0.105477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.041, "trend_reference": 0.1407, "distance_from_trend": -0.7086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.181911, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.96531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.111903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.836, "excess_performance": -0.899706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.7086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.96531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.811119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.086122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 916466, "relative_activity": 1.320416, "balance": 0.086122, "dry_up": 1.594208, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.375235, "annualized_volatility": 1.195574, "from_high_reference": -0.8975, "from_low_reference": 0.138889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1407, "fair_value_reference": 1.181911, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.058823, "positive_rate": 0.177778, "directional_follow_through": 0.622222, "median_excess_return": -0.071709, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.222105, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.48, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.407407, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.486397, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.60625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"direction": -73.510797, "energy": 86.867388, "activity_lines": [ 0.059467, 0.073855, 0.110152, 0.135273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.044, "volume": 1740763, "typical_volume": 600253.5, "trend": 0.160033, "fair_value": 1.25257, "relative_strength": -80.209382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.883065, "energy": 89.490727, "activity_lines": [ 0.053133, 0.065636, 0.101214, 0.127237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 1015915, "typical_volume": 626518.95, "trend": 0.151233, "fair_value": 1.228381, "relative_strength": -83.376723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.648106, "energy": 91.275259, "activity_lines": [ 0.0462, 0.057618, 0.092019, 0.119234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.043, "volume": 752848, "typical_volume": 656134.8, "trend": 0.146, "fair_value": 1.204237, "relative_strength": -80.043058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.443973, "energy": 88.981567, "activity_lines": [ 0.043533, 0.052582, 0.084271, 0.112252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.041, "volume": 916466, "typical_volume": 694073.75, "trend": 0.1407, "fair_value": 1.181911, "relative_strength": -81.111903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.750903, "energy": 89.083678, "activity_lines": [ 0.041667, 0.048764, 0.077081, 0.105477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }