{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9f746863-6745-4502-a6d3-7fa96ad585a8",
    "symbol": "LEAD",
    "name": "Evolve Future Leadership Hedged",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 66.109,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 48.461,
    "architecture_energy": 22.119,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.853,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.143,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.26,
        "rotation_up": 33.98,
        "upward_expansion": 59.09,
        "deceleration": 83.02,
        "rotation_down": 28.33,
        "downward_expansion": 20.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.610268,
        20.613399,
        20.588357,
        20.312875
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 20.92,
    "trend_reference": 20.105879,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.040492,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 18.227479,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147718,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.023477,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.083609,
    "excess_performance": -0.036812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040492,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.016174,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.147718,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019403,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110235,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023453,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083609,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.363636,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 600,
      "relative_activity": 0.234375,
      "balance": 1.363636,
      "dry_up": 0.361328,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025389,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.163383,
      "from_high_reference": -0.094049,
      "from_low_reference": 0.171228
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.105879,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.227479,
      "structural_low": 17.861593,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.028901,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022362,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.078089,
        "worst_return": -0.024214,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.08341,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.057116,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.158854,
        "worst_return": -0.126595,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.106465,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.044913,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.350625,
        "worst_return": -0.080463,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.320281,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.19424,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.460988,
        "worst_return": 0.179575,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.108757,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.063211,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.068114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071309,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095452,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019946,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024495,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.059503,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05932,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04352,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005192,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1145.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 6425.0,
        "trend": 20.304259,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.844763,
        "energy": 11.131259,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 6270.0,
        "trend": 20.278266,
        "fair_value": 17.970388,
        "relative_strength": -10.458462,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 23.651941,
        "energy": 18.373014,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 20.950026,
        "volume": 2400,
        "typical_volume": 6235.0,
        "trend": 20.257161,
        "fair_value": 18.02347,
        "relative_strength": -10.414527,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.563099,
        "energy": 20.037327,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.712367,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 20.58387,
        "volume": 2300,
        "typical_volume": 5625.0,
        "trend": 20.22291,
        "fair_value": 18.074105,
        "relative_strength": -11.322955,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.41555,
        "energy": 26.689126,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.702133,
          20.727343,
          20.474946,
          20.246407
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 20.118753,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 5190.0,
        "trend": 20.168764,
        "fair_value": 18.121034,
        "relative_strength": -13.01739,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.505529,
        "energy": 22.156426,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.524493,
          20.602301,
          20.480103,
          20.239687
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.52,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 4520.0,
        "trend": 20.136827,
        "fair_value": 18.172547,
        "relative_strength": -10.370893,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.322612,
        "energy": 16.993719,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.517058,
          20.565164,
          20.518722,
          20.262348
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.92,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 2560.0,
        "trend": 20.105879,
        "fair_value": 18.227479,
        "relative_strength": -11.023477,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.461385,
        "energy": 22.119441,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.610268,
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          20.588357,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}