{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f7fb766-834a-41f7-8d59-1386a23647cf", "symbol": "1627", "name": "NEXT FUNDS TOPIX-17 ELECTRIC POWER & GAS ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.027, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.417, "architecture_energy": 23.05, "architecture_maturity": 63.275, "architecture_confidence": 74.668, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 20.65, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 24.58, "downward_expansion": 56.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 11468.636393, 11370.081889, 11495.548186, 11731.797278 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11525.0, "trend_reference": 11962.585384, "distance_from_trend": -0.036579, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9487.082823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.634375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057645, "excess_performance": -0.266903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001537, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26455, "relative_activity": 2.112758, "balance": 0.742679, "dry_up": 1.278536, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030275, "annualized_volatility": 0.175399, "from_high_reference": -0.161513, "from_low_reference": 0.19492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11962.585384, "fair_value_reference": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11075.0, "volume": 13643, "typical_volume": 13422.55, "trend": 11946.418717, "fair_value": 9402.395405, "relative_strength": -19.103352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.144488, "energy": 67.358002, "activity_lines": [ 11178.625391, 11258.948881, 11579.227637, 11809.254664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11575.0, "volume": 11728, "typical_volume": 12942.2, "trend": 11953.918717, "fair_value": 9431.577922, "relative_strength": -15.781732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.365916, "energy": 40.039282, "activity_lines": [ 11309.752669, 11295.902308, 11548.763058, 11785.292166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11560.0, "volume": 12211, "typical_volume": 12164.45, "trend": 11960.252051, "fair_value": 9459.843531, "relative_strength": -15.206625, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.760004, "energy": 30.776085, "activity_lines": [ 11409.953776, 11336.128462, 11521.727051, 11759.878056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11525.0, "volume": 26455, "typical_volume": 12521.55, "trend": 11962.585384, "fair_value": 9487.082823, "relative_strength": -16.634375, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.417042, "energy": 23.050018, "activity_lines": [ 11468.636393, 11370.081889, 11495.548186, 11731.797278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }