{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f87bd77-b22b-4d89-989c-474921afb6aa", "symbol": "RQI", "name": "Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.613, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.203, "architecture_energy": 4.616, "architecture_maturity": 13.029, "architecture_confidence": 61.283, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.65, "rotation_up": 25.49, "upward_expansion": 29.09, "deceleration": 55.55, "rotation_down": 30.7, "downward_expansion": 21.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.518, 12.481781, 12.657836, 12.626154 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.52, "trend_reference": 12.534656, "distance_from_trend": -0.001169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.889474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.034914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026395, "excess_performance": -0.09923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001169, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026395, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.955978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2262619, "relative_activity": 0.797533, "balance": 0.955978, "dry_up": 1.426985, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036673, "annualized_volatility": 0.209377, "from_high_reference": -0.06569, "from_low_reference": 0.168896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.534656, "fair_value_reference": 10.889474, "structural_low": 11.450143, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.00038, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.017091, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.102661, "worst_return": -0.241073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030533, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.028228, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.190935, "worst_return": -0.143552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060925, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.241148, "worst_return": -0.174593, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036419, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 12.323635, 12.53363, 12.670666, 12.599705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.63, "volume": 3262408, "typical_volume": 2745307.05, "trend": 12.439929, "fair_value": 10.845669, "relative_strength": -2.196189, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.587293, "energy": 22.035014, "activity_lines": [ 12.431095, 12.51959, 12.672332, 12.615381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.58, "volume": 2967090, "typical_volume": 2797681.85, "trend": 12.493085, "fair_value": 10.868015, "relative_strength": -3.492834, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.787665, "energy": 11.961923, "activity_lines": [ 12.491912, 12.500263, 12.668882, 12.624418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.52, "volume": 2262619, "typical_volume": 2837021.9, "trend": 12.534656, "fair_value": 10.889474, "relative_strength": -7.034914, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.20337, "energy": 4.61582, "activity_lines": [ 12.518, 12.481781, 12.657836, 12.626154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }