{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9f88c7ac-811e-413e-8341-0431dbc9f149",
    "symbol": "ALAFY",
    "name": "AFYREN SAS",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.521,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 29.191,
    "architecture_energy": 33.073,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.62,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.378,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.24,
        "rotation_up": 57.98,
        "upward_expansion": 48.85,
        "deceleration": 21.52,
        "rotation_down": 20.11,
        "downward_expansion": 19.19
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.811667,
        2.775727,
        2.678643,
        2.68372
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 2.885,
    "trend_reference": 2.7275,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.057745,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.549301,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131683,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.702499,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.033501,
    "excess_performance": -0.086812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057745,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009126,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131683,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.274651,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017025,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119077,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033501,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.483252,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 46440,
      "relative_activity": 0.562779,
      "balance": 2.483252,
      "dry_up": 0.461109,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.068924,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.486223,
      "from_high_reference": -0.108192,
      "from_low_reference": 0.397094
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.7275,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.549301,
      "structural_low": 2.065,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.049171,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050138,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.683616,
        "worst_return": -0.319231,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.14,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.133809,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.003636,
        "worst_return": -0.202206,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.138182,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.124503,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.076667,
        "worst_return": -0.617647,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.376176,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.443639,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.12,
        "worst_return": -0.632353,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.191509,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.204218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.123333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.176786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.175166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03876,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043197,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.158996,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.207018,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.208238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.195021,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02305,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 5.48,
        "volume": 15634,
        "typical_volume": 19789.1,
        "trend": 5.261333,
        "fair_value": 6.634697,
        "relative_strength": -6.34845,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 2.48,
        "volume": 321379,
        "typical_volume": 131484.2,
        "trend": 2.667667,
        "fair_value": 2.780808,
        "relative_strength": -5.669023,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.786839,
        "energy": 62.45944,
        "activity_lines": [
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          2.712828
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 130690.25,
        "trend": 2.664,
        "fair_value": 2.765359,
        "relative_strength": -10.205198,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.124707,
        "energy": 58.049331,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 2.69,
        "volume": 196402,
        "typical_volume": 137868.9,
        "trend": 2.6765,
        "fair_value": 2.751192,
        "relative_strength": 3.299538,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.763219,
        "energy": 27.105036,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 2.585,
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        "typical_volume": 138757.35,
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        "fair_value": 2.738596,
        "relative_strength": -2.945096,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.808913,
        "energy": 11.673717,
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          2.638762,
          2.689398
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 137883.6,
        "trend": 2.702833,
        "fair_value": 2.724494,
        "relative_strength": -1.326433,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 19.65428,
        "activity_lines": [
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          2.628881,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 26090,
        "typical_volume": 130980.0,
        "trend": 2.7035,
        "fair_value": 2.708212,
        "relative_strength": -9.890448,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.272615,
        "energy": 22.960254,
        "activity_lines": [
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          2.598095,
          2.667366
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 3635,
        "typical_volume": 121307.15,
        "trend": 2.7055,
        "fair_value": 2.690263,
        "relative_strength": -10.67678,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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          2.501333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 2.727167,
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        "relative_strength": 5.583506,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.723123,
        "energy": 9.637769,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 16549,
        "typical_volume": 108692.9,
        "trend": 2.723167,
        "fair_value": 2.655712,
        "relative_strength": -2.240285,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.374948,
        "energy": 10.339941,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.632667,
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          2.587262,
          2.655355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 2.82,
        "volume": 15350,
        "typical_volume": 104694.95,
        "trend": 2.721333,
        "fair_value": 2.638917,
        "relative_strength": 2.587377,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -0.742049,
        "energy": 12.448451,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.706,
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          2.602548,
          2.661602
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 2.75,
        "volume": 42723,
        "typical_volume": 99883.2,
        "trend": 2.729667,
        "fair_value": 2.620776,
        "relative_strength": 1.855116,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.856681,
        "energy": 22.00976,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.744,
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          2.611405,
          2.663452
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 2.78,
        "volume": 48054,
        "typical_volume": 95168.6,
        "trend": 2.73,
        "fair_value": 2.602186,
        "relative_strength": 2.693051,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.511715,
        "energy": 31.831076,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.769333,
          2.699273,
          2.624238,
          2.666699
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2.82,
        "volume": 37530,
        "typical_volume": 91722.65,
        "trend": 2.729833,
        "fair_value": 2.583596,
        "relative_strength": 3.582763,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.429637,
        "energy": 39.151448,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.784,
          2.727909,
          2.641833,
          2.672505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.745,
        "volume": 20177,
        "typical_volume": 87225.05,
        "trend": 2.726333,
        "fair_value": 2.566064,
        "relative_strength": -0.888332,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.22219,
        "energy": 29.426109,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.777667,
          2.740545,
          2.652857,
          2.673484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.885,
        "volume": 46440,
        "typical_volume": 82519.0,
        "trend": 2.7275,
        "fair_value": 2.549301,
        "relative_strength": 1.702499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.190628,
        "energy": 33.072634,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.811667,
          2.775727,
          2.678643,
          2.68372
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}