{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f972387-5561-4187-b33f-14da016c45a7", "symbol": "NIRAJ", "name": "Niraj Cement Structurals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.907, "architecture_energy": 13.426, "architecture_maturity": 27.962, "architecture_confidence": 60.207, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.78, "rotation_up": 20.74, "upward_expansion": 11.53, "deceleration": 56.53, "rotation_down": 48.58, "downward_expansion": 41.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.082, 29.501455, 29.579428, 29.275785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.32, "trend_reference": 29.462667, "distance_from_trend": -0.004842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.166474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.085185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071858, "excess_performance": -0.028149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350846, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244090, "relative_activity": 0.99801, "balance": 0.849472, "dry_up": 0.652196, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089857, "annualized_volatility": 0.638169, "from_high_reference": -0.436154, "from_low_reference": 0.455087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.462667, "fair_value_reference": 45.166474, "structural_low": 20.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008679, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.028213, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.463875, "worst_return": -0.123512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.072262, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.079397, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.534483, "worst_return": -0.198775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06638, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079156, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.473504, "worst_return": -0.477842, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": 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"trend": 30.431333, "fair_value": 45.31968, "relative_strength": -14.182819, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.177874, "energy": 7.161768, "activity_lines": [ 29.882666, 29.877818, 29.514571, 29.488021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.58, "volume": 67309, "typical_volume": 262321.9, "trend": 30.025667, "fair_value": 45.302564, "relative_strength": -13.516486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.055408, "energy": 16.213429, "activity_lines": [ 29.22, 29.669454, 29.505762, 29.368581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.950001, "volume": 232724, "typical_volume": 258072.45, "trend": 29.682667, "fair_value": 45.263782, "relative_strength": -13.556601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.595422, "energy": 16.893, "activity_lines": [ 29.053333, 29.552182, 29.532, 29.299183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.32, "volume": 244090, "typical_volume": 244576.75, "trend": 29.462667, "fair_value": 45.166474, "relative_strength": -12.085185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.906709, "energy": 13.425763, "activity_lines": [ 29.082, 29.501455, 29.579428, 29.275785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }