{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9f9caa6c-06a4-49c7-90d1-83cb03c52c7b", "symbol": "CAL", "name": "Caleres Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.738, "architecture_energy": 19.678, "architecture_maturity": 23.54, "architecture_confidence": 58.215, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.67, "rotation_up": 41.97, "upward_expansion": 59.24, "deceleration": 56.25, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.980667, 12.766027, 12.867562, 12.610638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.5, "trend_reference": 12.401144, "distance_from_trend": 0.169247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.789765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.33455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.311589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129613, "excess_performance": 0.003989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.33455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071872, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023116, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3291215, "relative_activity": 1.112728, "balance": 1.654913, "dry_up": 0.849064, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136771, "annualized_volatility": 0.785207, "from_high_reference": -0.082468, "from_low_reference": 0.66618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.401144, "fair_value_reference": 21.789765, "structural_low": 8.702542, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.031339, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.048298, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227773, "worst_return": -0.289645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.13156, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.111269, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.124779, "worst_return": -0.316596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085924, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.023632, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.246421, "worst_return": 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"mixed", "direction": -12.150845, "energy": 15.565289, "activity_lines": [ 12.116, 12.646351, 12.680765, 12.481785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.78, "volume": 1920381, "typical_volume": 3153118.85, "trend": 12.351164, "fair_value": 21.944388, "relative_strength": -13.574821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.596102, "energy": 19.816665, "activity_lines": [ 11.909333, 12.46278, 12.632947, 12.442026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.84, "volume": 2434439, "typical_volume": 3091741.35, "trend": 12.375353, "fair_value": 21.85734, "relative_strength": -6.450552, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.424528, "energy": 11.791854, "activity_lines": [ 12.146667, 12.458075, 12.679904, 12.473564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.5, "volume": 3291215, "typical_volume": 2957790.3, "trend": 12.401144, "fair_value": 21.789765, "relative_strength": 2.311589, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.738056, "energy": 19.677954, "activity_lines": [ 12.980667, 12.766027, 12.867562, 12.610638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }