{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fa01e6e-c2e3-4a08-a7de-6c0d1b55a2e7", "symbol": "VBL", "name": "Varun Beverages Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.555, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.632, "architecture_energy": 67.431, "architecture_maturity": 6.969, "architecture_confidence": 83.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.31, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 29.35, "deceleration": 49.63, "rotation_down": 76.26, "downward_expansion": 59.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 450.168284, 471.276736, 487.372904, 479.214569 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 442.0, "trend_reference": 471.275003, "distance_from_trend": -0.062119, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 508.877915, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.659473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008941, "excess_performance": 0.05265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.221012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18620921, "relative_activity": 0.67856, "balance": 0.221012, "dry_up": 1.385248, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054125, "annualized_volatility": 0.307905, "from_high_reference": -0.188097, "from_low_reference": 0.162665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 471.275003, "fair_value_reference": 508.877915, "structural_low": 380.161029, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 459.810228, 481.180677, 491.072677, 481.202039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 442.0, "volume": 18620921, "typical_volume": 27441816.4, "trend": 471.275003, "fair_value": 508.877915, "relative_strength": -5.659473, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.632123, "energy": 67.431095, "activity_lines": [ 450.168284, 471.276736, 487.372904, 479.214569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }