{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fa3a5e6-f43e-4eb6-b446-69fb542930be", "symbol": "JMM", "name": "Nuveen Multi-Market Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.801, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.37, "architecture_energy": 16.217, "architecture_maturity": 12.716, "architecture_confidence": 76.946, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.91, "rotation_up": 20.8, "upward_expansion": 11.76, "deceleration": 51.1, "rotation_down": 40.17, "downward_expansion": 63.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.775743, 5.787566, 5.783567, 5.800404 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.78, "trend_reference": 5.845895, "distance_from_trend": -0.011272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.574418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.857434, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032071, "excess_performance": -0.157696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31055, "relative_activity": 0.848153, "balance": 0.828224, "dry_up": 0.881418, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02122, "annualized_volatility": 0.113226, "from_high_reference": -0.072926, "from_low_reference": 0.029273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.845895, "fair_value_reference": 5.574418, "structural_low": 5.615615, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00306, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.001653, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.04046, "worst_return": -0.062103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017036, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06893, "worst_return": -0.120161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030806, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.034149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068947, "worst_return": -0.149178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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5.772848, 5.787796, 5.825104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.830995, "volume": 16098, "typical_volume": 47725.5, "trend": 5.858535, "fair_value": 5.547507, "relative_strength": -10.711945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.457804, "energy": 13.572517, "activity_lines": [ 5.806618, 5.784273, 5.787951, 5.823167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.801144, "volume": 30022, "typical_volume": 48495.55, "trend": 5.85635, "fair_value": 5.553156, "relative_strength": -11.954163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.01344, "energy": 11.764296, "activity_lines": [ 5.81118, 5.789627, 5.786484, 5.819464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.84, "volume": 27843, "typical_volume": 47845.25, "trend": 5.855495, "fair_value": 5.559055, "relative_strength": -9.631549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.561208, "energy": 10.877519, "activity_lines": [ 5.824046, 5.801332, 5.790035, 5.818409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.725, "volume": 51261, "typical_volume": 48263.45, "trend": 5.850807, "fair_value": 5.563781, "relative_strength": -10.529374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.999819, "energy": 11.461222, "activity_lines": [ 5.792758, 5.791248, 5.784233, 5.80999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.77, "volume": 18933, "typical_volume": 36690.75, "trend": 5.847781, "fair_value": 5.569176, "relative_strength": -10.381824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.489734, "energy": 15.245314, "activity_lines": [ 5.780219, 5.78874, 5.783557, 5.804777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.78, "volume": 31055, "typical_volume": 36614.85, "trend": 5.845895, "fair_value": 5.574418, "relative_strength": -12.857434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.370282, "energy": 16.216919, "activity_lines": [ 5.775743, 5.787566, 5.783567, 5.800404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }