{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fadfbf2-59ac-4b5a-830b-dd7e77b0731c", "symbol": "AMSF", "name": "AMERISAFE Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.169, "architecture_energy": 44.655, "architecture_maturity": 20.201, "architecture_confidence": 57.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.13, "rotation_up": 11.86, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 55.73, "rotation_down": 69.44, "downward_expansion": 69.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.35, 31.602965, 31.544821, 31.871539 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.12, "trend_reference": 32.775157, "distance_from_trend": -0.111522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.199796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.02145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.237897, "excess_performance": -0.42535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.376919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1535402, "relative_activity": 1.365581, "balance": 1.376919, "dry_up": 1.141295, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0695, "annualized_volatility": 0.348853, "from_high_reference": -0.346895, "from_low_reference": 0.00622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.775157, "fair_value_reference": 40.199796, "structural_low": 28.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001759, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.004967, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.12759, "worst_return": -0.170049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024174, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.081949, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120065, "worst_return": -0.152618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002156, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.121003, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.10377, "worst_return": -0.140212, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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40.357054, "relative_strength": -23.340113, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.990779, "energy": 22.320197, "activity_lines": [ 32.984, 32.728614, 32.064694, 32.396436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.04, "volume": 1526536, "typical_volume": 1136333.55, "trend": 33.021283, "fair_value": 40.275133, "relative_strength": -26.424727, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.895916, "energy": 29.800667, "activity_lines": [ 31.496667, 32.143868, 31.792881, 32.123234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.12, "volume": 1535402, "typical_volume": 1124358.2, "trend": 32.775157, "fair_value": 40.199796, "relative_strength": -29.02145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.168609, "energy": 44.654776, "activity_lines": [ 30.35, 31.602965, 31.544821, 31.871539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }