{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fbaef85-cd16-4e55-83ad-6410b31ca8b9", "symbol": "AUST", "name": "Amundi Australia (S&P/ASX 200) UCITS ETF - D-EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.216, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.22, "architecture_energy": 82.685, "architecture_maturity": 9.67, "architecture_confidence": 63.99, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 80.9, "upward_expansion": 92.64, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 9.81, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.507334, 55.867455, 55.379715, 55.004839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.330002, "trend_reference": 54.469333, "distance_from_trend": 0.070878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.078584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213222, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.771733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108935, "excess_performance": -0.061956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037113, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.756925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11047, "relative_activity": 1.461031, "balance": 2.756925, "dry_up": 0.896563, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018871, "annualized_volatility": 0.155645, "from_high_reference": -0.000514, "from_low_reference": 0.227578 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.469333, "fair_value_reference": 48.078584, "structural_low": 51.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003635, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.016208, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.085637, "worst_return": -0.10936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022758, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.027485, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.169269, "worst_return": -0.172601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034583, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.057657, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078022, "worst_return": -0.026856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 54.953334, 54.855273, 54.662619, 54.302032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.029999, "volume": 5107, "typical_volume": 8646.25, "trend": 53.671166, "fair_value": 47.696695, "relative_strength": -9.033138, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.780176, "energy": 29.782452, "activity_lines": [ 55.014, 54.895091, 54.711666, 54.401645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.310001, "volume": 3055, "typical_volume": 7750.0, "trend": 53.861, "fair_value": 47.784425, "relative_strength": -7.060318, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.111189, "energy": 29.801663, "activity_lines": [ 55.084667, 54.984182, 54.788143, 54.507376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.650002, "volume": 3220, "typical_volume": 7572.2, "trend": 54.030333, "fair_value": 47.870782, "relative_strength": -6.153032, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.454613, "energy": 39.686627, "activity_lines": [ 55.277334, 55.13, 54.902048, 54.622796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.84, "volume": 9794, "typical_volume": 7784.1, "trend": 54.218, "fair_value": 47.965027, "relative_strength": -6.291081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.436107, "energy": 48.762202, "activity_lines": [ 55.512667, 55.285455, 55.027714, 54.739548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.330002, "volume": 11047, "typical_volume": 7561.1, "trend": 54.469333, "fair_value": 48.078584, "relative_strength": -4.771733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.220152, "energy": 82.685273, "activity_lines": [ 56.507334, 55.867455, 55.379715, 55.004839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }