{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fbc36a3-86cd-41b9-ae7a-004a7bf89428", "symbol": "002836", "name": "Guangdong New Grand Long Packing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.361, "architecture_energy": 64.4, "architecture_maturity": 74.878, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.5, "rotation_down": 58.9, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.028667, 9.258727, 10.253927, 11.141128 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.7, "trend_reference": 12.444511, "distance_from_trend": -0.22054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.928925, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.992653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330356, "excess_performance": -0.337756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.440692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17968221, "relative_activity": 1.451472, "balance": 0.323014, "dry_up": 1.301296, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094661, "annualized_volatility": 0.347669, "from_high_reference": -0.45803, "from_low_reference": 0.241997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.444511, "fair_value_reference": 8.928925, "structural_low": 7.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.004814, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.007676, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.236522, "worst_return": -0.156891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028518, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085576, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.121859, "worst_return": 0.016603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114564, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.125426, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37133, "worst_return": -0.048513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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91.140653, "activity_lines": [ 9.3, 9.905119, 11.022134, 11.896233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.25, "volume": 19485478, "typical_volume": 12483185.15, "trend": 12.803021, "fair_value": 8.909073, "relative_strength": -32.557814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.216909, "energy": 83.880152, "activity_lines": [ 8.888, 9.495928, 10.674894, 11.585337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.83, "volume": 12428827, "typical_volume": 12169080.35, "trend": 12.612216, "fair_value": 8.916603, "relative_strength": -26.434281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.90939, "energy": 67.51418, "activity_lines": [ 8.793333, 9.268727, 10.410524, 11.329013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.7, "volume": 17968221, "typical_volume": 12379307.85, "trend": 12.444511, "fair_value": 8.928925, "relative_strength": -22.992653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.36074, "energy": 64.399652, "activity_lines": [ 9.028667, 9.258727, 10.253927, 11.141128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }