{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fbf6925-682b-44c6-9993-917dc2075475", "symbol": "MKTW", "name": "Marketwise Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.818, "architecture_energy": 62.817, "architecture_maturity": 24.072, "architecture_confidence": 85.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 69.15, "upward_expansion": 88.41, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 13.15, "downward_expansion": 12.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.016667, 19.340545, 18.528573, 17.817282 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.25, "trend_reference": 16.862407, "distance_from_trend": 0.200896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.923321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.275523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.416746, "excess_performance": 0.229293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06002, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102755, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.416746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.122081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112458, "relative_activity": 1.032215, "balance": 1.122081, "dry_up": 0.52938, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093124, "annualized_volatility": 0.600751, "from_high_reference": -0.113009, "from_low_reference": 0.630334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.862407, "fair_value_reference": 18.923321, "structural_low": 12.728215, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.073537, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.06933, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.274184, "worst_return": -0.295276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038925, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.101396, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.275475, "worst_return": -0.443648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176382, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075993, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268824, "worst_return": -0.595339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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25220, "typical_volume": 114127.8, "trend": 16.661966, "fair_value": 18.958463, "relative_strength": 12.692503, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.764365, "energy": 68.102407, "activity_lines": [ 19.851333, 18.988182, 18.297807, 17.585796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.25, "volume": 112458, "typical_volume": 108948.2, "trend": 16.862407, "fair_value": 18.923321, "relative_strength": 10.275523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.818279, "energy": 62.817302, "activity_lines": [ 20.016667, 19.340545, 18.528573, 17.817282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }