{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fced859-9ec9-4b4e-8d7d-31d9d2fdd36f", "symbol": "GRVO", "name": "Graines Voltz S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.086, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.621, "architecture_energy": 67.511, "architecture_maturity": 13.67, "architecture_confidence": 87.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.58, "rotation_up": 10.61, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 74.72, "downward_expansion": 92.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.616666, 17.929091, 18.34881, 18.537312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 18.835, "distance_from_trend": -0.070879, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.235295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.90327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142157, "excess_performance": -0.195468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.103442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1283, "relative_activity": 0.644351, "balance": 0.103442, "dry_up": 0.770032, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047253, "annualized_volatility": 0.200713, "from_high_reference": -0.235808, "from_low_reference": 0.067073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.835, "fair_value_reference": 22.235295, "structural_low": 17.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.024284, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.016622, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.264331, "worst_return": -0.370888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.001142, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.18125, "worst_return": -0.492063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.201271, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.249574, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.045093, "worst_return": -0.492725, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1915.7, "trend": 18.848333, "fair_value": 22.773436, "relative_strength": -7.39477, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.651535, "energy": 47.969429, "activity_lines": [ 18.346667, 18.637273, 18.731905, 18.846129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.25, "volume": 1587, "typical_volume": 1940.1, "trend": 18.871667, "fair_value": 22.637218, "relative_strength": -7.22124, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.30446, "energy": 49.932244, "activity_lines": [ 18.296667, 18.524546, 18.679762, 18.807527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.6, "volume": 1239, "typical_volume": 1941.95, "trend": 18.868333, "fair_value": 22.501641, "relative_strength": -10.624815, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.104434, "energy": 63.451549, "activity_lines": [ 18.03, 18.316364, 18.573095, 18.725484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 2024, "typical_volume": 1973.2, "trend": 18.848333, "fair_value": 22.368628, "relative_strength": -13.21761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.219912, "energy": 68.034517, "activity_lines": [ 17.753333, 18.088182, 18.447619, 18.624301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5, "volume": 1283, "typical_volume": 1991.15, "trend": 18.835, "fair_value": 22.235295, "relative_strength": -13.90327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.620603, "energy": 67.510576, "activity_lines": [ 17.616666, 17.929091, 18.34881, 18.537312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }