{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fcf8882-3f09-461a-96a7-02a3c85d42fa", "symbol": "ABOS", "name": "Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.508, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.35, "architecture_energy": 41.683, "architecture_maturity": 19.889, "architecture_confidence": 83.493, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.53, "rotation_up": 18.51, "upward_expansion": 12.46, "deceleration": 35.62, "rotation_down": 54.46, "downward_expansion": 78.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.288, 2.347818, 2.391238, 2.460796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.44, "trend_reference": 2.499, "distance_from_trend": -0.023609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.491819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020796, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.462407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016667, "excess_performance": -0.170787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023609, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637886, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293954, "relative_activity": 0.604971, "balance": 1.637886, "dry_up": 0.846134, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15634, "annualized_volatility": 0.815497, "from_high_reference": -0.322222, "from_low_reference": 1.050248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.499, "fair_value_reference": 2.491819, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075342, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.04365, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.207865, "worst_return": -0.323689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053082, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.103736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.491379, "worst_return": -0.479204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.252632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.741379, "worst_return": -0.244123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.431579, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.821141, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.362069, "worst_return": -0.609551, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.179558, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.31681, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.53719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.293103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.279621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029536, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.29, "volume": 3190239, "typical_volume": 3779333.15, "trend": 5.307, "fair_value": 7.424375, "relative_strength": -7.26566, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.871755, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.042283, "energy": 8.629139, "activity_lines": [ 2.464667, 2.431273, 2.465524, 2.506258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.13, "volume": 1127519, "typical_volume": 2630613.55, "trend": 2.473667, "fair_value": 2.55496, "relative_strength": -9.179354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.386702, "energy": 13.222199, "activity_lines": [ 2.358667, 2.379455, 2.424762, 2.484129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 2179984, "typical_volume": 2657890.0, "trend": 2.478, "fair_value": 2.521947, "relative_strength": -9.173453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.997061, "energy": 44.534111, "activity_lines": [ 2.268, 2.334, 2.391524, 2.463247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.44, "volume": 1293954, "typical_volume": 2138869.5, "trend": 2.499, "fair_value": 2.491819, "relative_strength": -2.462407, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.350134, "energy": 41.683408, "activity_lines": [ 2.288, 2.347818, 2.391238, 2.460796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }