{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fd2ca7a-02f6-4a4d-ab18-20c80ec4e515", "symbol": "CON", "name": "Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.821, "architecture_energy": 71.212, "architecture_maturity": 73.923, "architecture_confidence": 86.657, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 73.15, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 62.54, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.433333, 31.571455, 29.058263, 27.344039 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.06, "trend_reference": 25.407769, "distance_from_trend": 0.340535, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.229452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.532202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.540732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.457051, "excess_performance": 0.331426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.340535, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.532202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.398306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.305407, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.297535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.457051, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.978984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6227571, "relative_activity": 1.478657, "balance": 3.978984, "dry_up": 1.089964, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063184, "annualized_volatility": 0.271983, "from_high_reference": -0.03101, "from_low_reference": 0.851981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.407769, "fair_value_reference": 22.229452, "structural_low": 20.489839, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021215, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019752, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.260269, "worst_return": -0.081966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.115439, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015476, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.115439, "worst_return": 0.115439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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26.291561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.651352, "energy": 66.250881, "activity_lines": [ 31.635333, 30.749455, 28.30994, 26.755153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.06, "volume": 6227571, "typical_volume": 4211639.3, "trend": 25.407769, "fair_value": 22.229452, "relative_strength": 30.540732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.821226, "energy": 71.211644, "activity_lines": [ 32.433333, 31.571455, 29.058263, 27.344039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }