{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fd549d4-96fd-4957-9b59-4d9e4bf5fdad", "symbol": "XRES", "name": "Invesco Real Estate S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.955, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.862, "architecture_energy": 54.796, "architecture_maturity": 35.608, "architecture_confidence": 82.718, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.22, "rotation_up": 56.06, "upward_expansion": 78.78, "deceleration": 55.72, "rotation_down": 16.15, "downward_expansion": 10.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.035667, 27.854818, 27.551155, 27.182919 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.885, "trend_reference": 26.681583, "distance_from_trend": 0.045103, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.006687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.570191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103701, "excess_performance": 0.052466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045103, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04148, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.477499, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 612398, "relative_activity": 4.856051, "balance": 1.477499, "dry_up": 1.911787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029586, "annualized_volatility": 0.167178, "from_high_reference": -0.028736, "from_low_reference": 0.161149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.681583, "fair_value_reference": 24.006687, "structural_low": 24.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006285, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.008653, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.092556, "worst_return": -0.159915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010601, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050256, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.041163, "worst_return": -0.145326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02105, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074013, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.102426, "worst_return": -0.154881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 23.829043, "relative_strength": 0.512736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.496957, "energy": 32.808487, "activity_lines": [ 27.394, 27.348182, 27.058941, 26.723403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.280001, "volume": 90293, "typical_volume": 91376.35, "trend": 26.312417, "fair_value": 23.871623, "relative_strength": 3.406035, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.329781, "energy": 51.491603, "activity_lines": [ 27.676001, 27.531091, 27.20731, 26.858855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.59, "volume": 191227, "typical_volume": 98468.35, "trend": 26.453833, "fair_value": 23.918178, "relative_strength": 3.299825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.290037, "energy": 61.531567, "activity_lines": [ 28.03, 27.753455, 27.377893, 27.005796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.885, "volume": 70466, "typical_volume": 99228.6, "trend": 26.57075, "fair_value": 23.961815, "relative_strength": -0.375798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.291948, "energy": 52.915349, "activity_lines": [ 28.034667, 27.810182, 27.469333, 27.098129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.885, "volume": 612398, "typical_volume": 126110.3, "trend": 26.681583, "fair_value": 24.006687, "relative_strength": -0.570191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.862025, "energy": 54.795503, "activity_lines": [ 28.035667, 27.854818, 27.551155, 27.182919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }