{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fd6c240-1015-46ac-b460-8f45182877da", "symbol": "P1KX34", "name": "POSCO Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.224, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.352, "architecture_energy": 82.4, "architecture_maturity": 15.701, "architecture_confidence": 89.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.28, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 21.09, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 62.07, "downward_expansion": 92.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.614, 68.441454, 76.319565, 78.30838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.18, "trend_reference": 79.860422, "distance_from_trend": -0.14626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.302649, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.882582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161232, "excess_performance": -0.104183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001998, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.541833, "dry_up": 0.304247, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059049, "annualized_volatility": 0.577037, "from_high_reference": -0.387256, "from_low_reference": 0.105323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.860422, "fair_value_reference": 82.302649, "structural_low": 64.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.01204, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.010222, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.298958, "worst_return": -0.188355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034497, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06827, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.398825, "worst_return": -0.227871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051824, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051667, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.551166, "worst_return": -0.256478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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72.906256, 79.889776, 80.623098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.18, "volume": 705, "typical_volume": 729.45, "trend": 80.139371, "fair_value": 83.07648, "relative_strength": -14.712655, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.713822, "energy": 86.804778, "activity_lines": [ 66.248665, 70.762583, 78.651592, 79.842527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 629.3, "trend": 79.999897, "fair_value": 82.672557, "relative_strength": -16.087308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.967883, "energy": 82.676324, "activity_lines": [ 67.047999, 69.402363, 77.469281, 79.070954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 579.3, "trend": 79.860422, "fair_value": 82.302649, "relative_strength": -12.882582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.352024, "energy": 82.400471, "activity_lines": [ 67.614, 68.441454, 76.319565, 78.30838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }